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of GPT-4-level AI (cheapest model scoring at least 86 on MMLU)","short":"GPT-4-level price","unit":"USD per million tokens","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2023.197,37.5],[2023.846,15],[2024.364,7.5],[2024.392,2.19],[2025.096,0.175]],"trend":{"slope":-1.2011199467956175,"intercept":2431.9235059755465,"r2":0.8841886667199421,"sd":0.35454878719172617,"years":0.25062442470219376,"linear":false,"from":2023.197,"to":2025.096},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, LLM inference prices have fallen rapidly but unequally across tasks (Cottier et al., 2025), lowest_price_models_data.csv","url":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"The cheapest model that matches the original GPT-4 (March 2023) on MMLU (score of 86 or more), at its release date, from Epoch AI's CSV (https://epoch.ai/data/charts/llm-inference-price-trends/lowest_price_models_data.csv, updated November 2025, downloaded 2026-10-28). Price is a 3:1 blend of input and output token prices, the first-party API price where there is one. Epoch's data ends with models released in February 2025. Epoch found prices for a fixed capability falling 9 to 900 times a year depending on the benchmark (about 40 times a year at GPT-4 level on PhD-level science questions). Its later study, \"The plunging price of thought\" (September 2026, https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought), uses cost per answered question instead and finds about 13 times a year overall. MMLU is near saturation and may be partly memorised, so cheap models can match GPT-4 on it while being weaker on harder tasks.","field":"computing","milestones":["ai-gpt4-level-1-dollar"]},{"id":"ai-lab-revenue","name":"Combined annualized revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic","short":"AI lab revenue","unit":"USD a year (run rate)","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[2024,2087000000],[2024.997,6500000000],[2025.573,17000000000],[2025.997,30400000000],[2026.162,44000000000],[2026.556,95000000000],[2026.745,115000000000]],"trend":{"slope":0.6513313296421509,"intercept":-1309.052880261824,"r2":0.9902512467168858,"sd":0.06792957811789699,"years":0.46217644072083963,"linear":false,"from":2024,"to":2026.745},"scenarios":[{"id":"ai-digest-2026","name":"AI Digest survey, end of 2026","kind":"survey","points":[[2026.745,115000000000],[2027,100000000000]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The median of 557 forecasters in the AI Digest 2026 survey (closed 25 January 2026) for OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI's December 2026 annualized revenue: $100 billion, from about $31 billion at the time. It was already passed by the third quarter of 2026.","sources":[{"title":"AI Digest, AI 2026 Forecasting Survey (forecast2026.ai)","url":"https://forecast2026.ai/"},{"title":"Eli Lifland, AI Futures Project, forecast of how AI will progress in 2026","url":"https://blog.aifutures.org/p/forecast-how-ai-will-progress-in"}]},{"id":"leap-superforecasters","name":"FRI LEAP, superforecasters","kind":"survey","points":[[2026.745,115000000000],[2027,90000000000],[2031,300000000000],[2041,770000000000]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"Superforecasters' medians in the Forecasting Research Institute's LEAP wave 11 (13 July to 11 August 2026) for OpenAI and Anthropic's combined run rate at the end of 2026, 2030 and 2040: $90 billion, $300 billion and $770 billion. Forecasters were told it was $72 billion in mid-July; FRI suspects many anchored on the $30 billion end-2025 figure.","sources":[{"title":"Forecasting Research Institute, LEAP wave 11 report","url":"https://leap.forecastingresearch.org/reports/wave11"}]},{"id":"leap-experts","name":"FRI LEAP, experts","kind":"survey","points":[[2026.745,115000000000],[2027,70000000000],[2031,150000000000],[2041,300000000000]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The LEAP experts' medians for the same question: $70 billion at the end of 2026, $150 billion at the end of 2030 and $300 billion at the end of 2040, slowing to about 20 percent a year after 2026.","sources":[{"title":"Forecasting Research Institute, LEAP wave 11 report","url":"https://leap.forecastingresearch.org/reports/wave11"}]},{"id":"epoch-3x","name":"Epoch, about 3 times a year","kind":"trend","points":[[2026.745,115000000000],[2027.745,345000000000],[2028.745,1035000000000]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"Lab revenue growing about 3 times a year, the rate Epoch AI's 2030 report found (\"hundreds of billions\" before 2030) and close to the 3.2 times a year for OpenAI since 2024 on its trends page, carried forward from the September 2026 lower bound. It reaches a trillion dollars a year in late 2028.","sources":[{"title":"Epoch AI, What will AI look like in 2030? (September 2025)","url":"https://epoch.ai/blog/what-will-ai-look-like-in-2030"},{"title":"Epoch AI, Trends in AI (data-trends)","url":"https://epoch.ai/data-trends"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, AI companies revenue reports (ai_companies_revenue_reports.csv)","url":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai_companies_revenue_reports.csv"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"The two leading AI labs' annualized revenue (the latest month times 12), summing the two companies' reports nearest in time from Epoch AI's compilation of disclosures and press reports (downloaded 2026-10-28). The last point adds OpenAI's September figure to Anthropic's July one, so it is a lower bound. Epoch's file notes that reports of OpenAI near $70 billion in September 2026 grossed up revenue shared with cloud partners and were superseded by an FT report of $50 billion. xAI, the third lab in the AI Digest survey question, was under $0.5 billion in 2025 and is left out. Combined revenue grew about 4 times a year from 2024 to 2026. The AI Digest 2025 survey's median for the end of 2025 (with xAI) was $16 billion; the result was $30.4 billion, so forecasters were about half too low, and they were low again in 2026.","field":"society","milestones":["ai-lab-revenue-100b","ai-lab-revenue-1t"]},{"id":"ai-task-horizon","name":"Time horizon of frontier AI agents on software tasks (METR, 50% success)","short":"AI task horizon","unit":"minutes","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[2019.12,0.0538],[2020.405,0.144],[2022.2,0.599],[2023.197,3.99],[2023.846,4.04],[2024.364,6.99],[2024.468,11.4],[2024.698,20.3],[2024.808,20.5],[2024.928,38.8],[2025.148,60.4],[2025.287,120],[2025.597,203],[2025.879,224],[2025.895,293],[2025.942,352],[2026.096,719],[2026.263,1040]],"trend":{"slope":0.6019093889553271,"intercept":-1217.1150366511683,"r2":0.93079246064108,"sd":0.33545089021670327,"years":0.5001251038573237,"linear":false,"from":2019.12,"to":2026.263},"scenarios":[{"id":"metr-long-run","name":"METR long-run trend, doubling every 6 months","kind":"trend","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2027,2806],[2028,10787],[2029,41472],[2030,159443]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The doubling time METR fits to its whole series since 2019, about 188 days, carried forward from Mythos Preview. It reaches a 40-hour week in late 2026, a 167-hour month at the end of 2027 and a 2,000-hour year in late 2029. METR's own projection (March 2025) was that if the trend held, AI agents would carry out month-long projects by the end of the decade. Above about 16 hours METR's current tasks cannot confirm any of this; every path here is a guess about what a longer task suite would measure.","sources":[{"title":"METR, Time horizon 1.1 (January 2026)","url":"https://metr.org/blog/2026-01-29-time-horizon-1-1/"},{"title":"METR, Measuring AI ability to complete long tasks (March 2025)","url":"https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/"}]},{"id":"metr-since-2023","name":"METR 2023-26 trend, doubling every 4 months","kind":"trend","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2027,4418],[2028,31444],[2029,223807]],"low":[[2027,3388],[2028,16819],[2029,83502]],"high":[[2027,6255],[2028,71356],[2029,814054]],"note":"METR's doubling time for models since 2023, about 129 days (95 percent interval 104 to 158 days, which gives the band); since 2024 it is faster still, about 89 days. On this path the horizon passed a 40-hour week in September 2026, reaches a month in mid-2027 and a year in late 2028. METR found GPT-5.6 Sol (June 2026) at about 11 hours if cheating counts as failure but 71 hours if cheating runs are dropped, and judged neither a robust measurement, and its May 2026 risk report said the best agents essentially saturated the task suite.","sources":[{"title":"METR, benchmark results (benchmark_results_1_1.yaml, doubling times)","url":"https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml"},{"title":"METR, GPT-5.6 Sol evaluation (June 2026)","url":"https://metr.org/blog/2026-06-26-gpt-5-6-sol/"},{"title":"METR, Frontier risk report (May 2026)","url":"https://metr.org/blog/2026-05-19-frontier-risk-report/"}]},{"id":"ai-digest-2026","name":"AI Digest survey, doubling every 4.6 months","kind":"survey","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2027,4001],[2028,24893]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The median of 642 forecasters in the AI Digest 2026 survey (January 2026) for the doubling time of METR's horizon over 2026: 4.55 months, carried forward here past 2026. The Forecasting Research Institute's LEAP panel (April to May 2026) asked about the stricter 80 percent horizon instead: medians of 3.4 hours (experts) and 3.5 hours (superforecasters) by the end of 2026, which Mythos Preview's 3.1 hours nearly matched in May, and 80 percent success on 8-hour tasks by 2030 (experts) or 2028 (superforecasters).","sources":[{"title":"AI Digest, AI 2026 Forecasting Survey (forecast2026.ai)","url":"https://forecast2026.ai/"},{"title":"Forecasting Research Institute, LEAP wave 8, AI timelines (June 2026)","url":"https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/leap-wave-8-ai-timelines"}]},{"id":"manifold","name":"Manifold markets","kind":"market","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2027,2450],[2028,7680]],"low":[[2027,960],[2028,960]],"high":[[2027,3840]],"note":"Manifold's \"frontier METR time horizon on January 1, 2027\" market (15 traders, 28 October 2026) puts 34 percent on 16 to 32 hours and 43 percent on 32 to 64 hours, a median near 41 hours (interpolated); its 2028 twin (9 traders) puts 55 percent on 128 hours or more. Both resolve on METR's numbers, which METR stopped updating in September 2026; a separate market gives 74 percent that the end-2026 horizon will be \"ambiguous\", and a 2026 market resolved its thresholds above 16 hours as void.","sources":[{"title":"Manifold, What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?","url":"https://manifold.markets/Benthamite/what-will-the-frontier-metr-time-ho"},{"title":"Manifold, What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?","url":"https://manifold.markets/Benthamite/what-will-the-frontier-metr-time-ho-zsSz9zytSP"},{"title":"Manifold, Will the METR 50% time horizon be \"ambiguous\" at the end of 2026?","url":"https://manifold.markets/event/will-the-metr-50-time-horizon-be-am"}]},{"id":"ai-futures-model","name":"AI Futures Model (default settings)","kind":"model","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2026.5,1689],[2027,5599],[2027.5,24312],[2028,203342]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The default run of the AI Futures Project's model on aifuturesmodel.com (read 28 October 2026), in which each doubling is 8 percent easier than the last (superexponential), starting from a 4-month doubling time. The model forecasts the 80 percent horizon; it is converted here to the 50 percent horizon at Mythos Preview's ratio of 5.6 (1,045 to 186 minutes), an assumption, since the ratio was 10 for Claude Opus 4.6. The run reaches an automated coder in late 2027 and superintelligence in late 2028. The project's August 2026 update moved away from time horizons, since \"it's unclear what time horizon corresponds to\" an automated coder; its forecasters' medians for that milestone are November 2027 (Kokotajlo), January 2029 (Brendan, AI Futures) and January 2030 (Lifland).","sources":[{"title":"AI Futures Project, AI Futures Model","url":"https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/"},{"title":"AI Futures Project, Q2.5 2026 timelines update (August 2026)","url":"https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q25-2026-timelines-update-uplift"}]},{"id":"slowdown","name":"Slowdown, each doubling 10 percent longer","kind":"model","points":[[2026.263,1040],[2027,4125],[2028,18973],[2029,67449],[2030,196427],[2032,1155797]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"AI 2027's subexponential case, in which each doubling takes 10 percent longer than the one before, started from METR's 129-day doubling time. Growth slows to a doubling a year by about 2033; a month arrives in the second half of 2027 and a year in mid-2029. Whitfill, Snodin and Becker (2025) found that month-long horizons at 80 percent reliability come about 7 years later than a simple trend suggests once the shape of the success curve is modelled. Started from the slower 188-day trend, the same case would reach a year around 2031.","sources":[{"title":"AI 2027, timelines forecast (superexponential and subexponential cases)","url":"https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast"},{"title":"Whitfill, Snodin and Becker 2025, arXiv 2511.19492","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.19492"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"METR, Time horizons of frontier AI models (Time Horizon 1.1 results, benchmark_results_1_1.yaml)","url":"https://metr.org/time-horizons/"},"license":"Copyright METR, all rights reserved (no open license stated); figures reused as cited facts","note":"The length of software, research-engineering and cybersecurity tasks, measured by how long they take skilled humans, that a model completes with 50 percent probability. Only models METR marks as state of the art at release are kept (18 of 26), dated by release. Values are METR's Time Horizon 1.1 estimates (228 tasks, after METR's correction of 3 March 2026), from https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml, downloaded 2026-10-28; TH1.1 revised several older models (GPT-4 from 6.0 to 4.0 minutes, GPT-5 from 131 to 203). METR's own doubling time from 2023 on is about 129 days (CI 104 to 158), and about 188 days over the whole series. METR says estimates above 16 hours are unreliable with the current task suite, so the last two points (12 and 17 hours) have very wide intervals, and its page says it is no longer actively updated: no model released after April 2026 had been measured by October 2026. A 50 percent horizon is not the same as doing the job reliably; METR's 80 percent horizons are about 4 to 8 times shorter.","field":"computing","milestones":["ai-horizon-1-hour","ai-horizon-1-workday","ai-horizon-1-week","ai-horizon-1-month","ai-horizon-1-year"]},{"id":"ai-training-compute","name":"Training compute of notable AI models","short":"AI training compute","unit":"FLOP","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[1950,40],[1957,694894.9377361819],[1980,273738240],[1986,673920000],[1987,28328002560],[1989,1496338054440],[1992,18232157622832.703],[1997,31512000000000],[2000,6339000000000000],[2012,470000000000000000],[2014,56000000000000000000],[2016,6.62e+21],[2017,649439910290227000000],[2018,285000000000000000000],[2019,1.07734e+23],[2020,3.14e+23],[2021,8.586e+23],[2022,2.5272e+24],[2023,5e+25],[2024,3.8e+25],[2025,5e+26],[2026,9.4e+26]],"trend":{"slope":0.6502974009935439,"intercept":-1290.348751214636,"r2":0.9509163041525501,"sd":0.6611926050184088,"years":0.4629112698344765,"linear":false,"from":2012,"to":2026},"scenarios":[{"id":"epoch-4-5x","name":"Epoch trend, 4 to 5 times a year","kind":"trend","points":[[2026,9.4e+26],[2027,4.7e+27],[2028,2.35e+28],[2030,5.9e+29]],"low":[[2027,3.76e+27],[2028,1.5e+28],[2030,2.4e+29]],"high":[[2027,4.7e+27],[2028,2.35e+28],[2030,5.9e+29]],"note":"Frontier training compute growing 5 times a year (Epoch AI's trends page, February 2026), with the band down to 4 times a year (Epoch's 2024 estimate), from GPT-6 Astra. It passes 1e28 FLOP in 2027 and 1e29 in 2029.","sources":[{"title":"Epoch AI, Trends in AI (data-trends)","url":"https://epoch.ai/data-trends"},{"title":"Epoch AI, Training compute of frontier AI models grows by 4-5x per year","url":"https://epoch.ai/blog/training-compute-of-frontier-ai-models-grows-by-4-5x-per-year"}]},{"id":"epoch-feasible-2030","name":"Epoch, feasible by 2030","kind":"model","points":[[2026,9.4e+26],[2030,2e+29]],"low":[[2030,1e+28]],"high":[[2030,3e+29]],"note":"Epoch AI's 2024 analysis found training runs of about 2e29 FLOP \"will likely be feasible by the end of this decade\", with power the tightest limit: 1 to 5 gigawatt campuses allow runs of 1e28 to 3e29 FLOP by 2030, which gives the band. Its September 2025 report for Google DeepMind expected about 1e29 FLOP by 2030, with clusters costing over $100 billion. The path implies about 3.8 times a year.","sources":[{"title":"Epoch AI, Can AI scaling continue through 2030? (August 2024)","url":"https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030"},{"title":"Epoch AI, What will AI look like in 2030? (September 2025)","url":"https://epoch.ai/blog/what-will-ai-look-like-in-2030"}]},{"id":"since-gpt4","name":"Since GPT-4, about 3 times a year","kind":"trend","points":[[2026,9.4e+26],[2027,2.82e+27],[2028,8.46e+27],[2030,7.6e+28]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The slower pace of the largest estimated runs since GPT-4: from 2.1e25 FLOP (GPT-4, March 2023) to 9.4e26 (GPT-6 Astra, September 2026) is about 3 times a year in this dataset, carried forward. It reaches 1e28 in 2028 and 1e29 only after 2030."}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, Notable AI Models dataset","url":"https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-models"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Exact values from Epoch AI's notable_ai_models.csv, downloaded 2026-10-27. Most frontier values after 2022 are Epoch estimates, not lab disclosures, and the confidence labels range from confident to speculative. Epoch finds frontier training compute growing about 4 to 5 times per year since 2010 (https://epoch.ai/blog/training-compute-of-frontier-ai-models-grows-by-4-5x-per-year).","field":"computing","milestones":["ai-training-1e25-flop","ai-training-1e26-flop","ai-training-1e27-flop","ai-training-1e28-flop","ai-training-1e29-flop"]},{"id":"battery-pack-price","name":"Price of lithium-ion battery packs (BloombergNEF survey average)","short":"Battery pack price","unit":"USD per kWh (constant 2025 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2010,1474],[2013,827],[2014,734],[2015,475],[2016,365],[2017,273],[2018,224],[2019,194],[2020,169],[2021,159],[2022,170],[2023,148],[2024,118],[2025,108]],"trend":{"slope":-0.04464285686008788,"intercept":92.44649289466044,"r2":0.9347073058733045,"sd":0.03454403459775438,"years":6.743071945584009,"linear":false,"from":2017,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"BloombergNEF, Lithium-ion battery pack prices fall to $108 per kilowatt-hour, despite rising metal prices (December 2025), and New record lows for battery prices","url":"https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-fall-to-108-per-kilowatt-hour-despite-rising-metal-prices-bloombergnef/"},"license":"Copyright BloombergNEF; headline figures from its public press releases, reused as cited facts","note":"Volume-weighted average price of a finished pack (cells plus modules, battery management, wiring and housing; for stationary storage, the rack) across electric cars, buses, commercial vehicles, two- and three-wheelers and stationary storage, all restated by BNEF in real 2025 dollars. 2013 to 2025 are the labelled bars of BNEF's 2025 survey chart (lithium_11.png in the press release); 2010 is from the line chart in \"New record lows for battery prices\" (https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/new-record-lows-for-battery-prices/), whose caption gives $1,474 (written \"$!,474\"). BNEF restates the whole history every year, so older releases quote smaller numbers for the same years (for example $1,100 for 2010 in the 2020 survey). Segment prices are lower than the average: in 2025, stationary storage packs averaged $70, car packs $99 and all packs in China $84. The cell share of the 2025 average was $74.","field":"energy","milestones":["battery-pack-100-dollars-kwh","battery-pack-50-dollars-kwh"]},{"id":"cereal-yield","name":"World cereal yield","short":"Cereal yield","unit":"tonnes per hectare","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[1961,1.353],[1962,1.427],[1963,1.44],[1964,1.494],[1965,1.497],[1966,1.61],[1967,1.653],[1968,1.696],[1969,1.709],[1970,1.766],[1971,1.892],[1972,1.858],[1973,1.94],[1974,1.893],[1975,1.913],[1976,2.026],[1977,2.025],[1978,2.213],[1979,2.176],[1980,2.161],[1981,2.247],[1982,2.369],[1983,2.309],[1984,2.499],[1985,2.529],[1986,2.557],[1987,2.54],[1988,2.46],[1989,2.629],[1990,2.758],[1991,2.683],[1992,2.789],[1993,2.738],[1994,2.814],[1995,2.767],[1996,2.926],[1997,2.994],[1998,3.051],[1999,3.113],[2000,3.059],[2001,3.135],[2002,3.078],[2003,3.118],[2004,3.364],[2005,3.28],[2006,3.281],[2007,3.37],[2008,3.545],[2009,3.559],[2010,3.561],[2011,3.655],[2012,3.612],[2013,3.83],[2014,3.893],[2015,3.933],[2016,4.017],[2017,4.066],[2018,4.022],[2019,4.125],[2020,4.114],[2021,4.172],[2022,4.183],[2023,4.228],[2024,4.206]],"trend":{"slope":0.04634194139194139,"intercept":-89.54069322344321,"r2":0.9932951771478651,"sd":0.0714593705547448,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1961,"to":2024},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Cereal yield (FAO, Production: Crops and livestock products, 2025)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cereal-yield"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"World production of all cereals (wheat, rice, maize, barley, sorghum, millet and others) divided by harvested area, from FAOSTAT via OWID (CSV downloaded 2026-10-28). Rice is counted as paddy. The rise from 1.35 tonnes in 1961 to over 4 is the Green Revolution and its successors: semi-dwarf wheat and rice, hybrid maize, fertilizer and irrigation. Growth has been roughly linear (about 0.045 tonnes a year), so the exponential fit slowly overstates future gains.","field":"agriculture","milestones":["cereal-yield-4-tonnes","cereal-yield-5-tonnes"]},{"id":"dna-synthesis-cost","name":"Price of gene synthesis per base","short":"Gene synthesis price","unit":"USD per base","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1999,25],[2001,12],[2002,8],[2003,4],[2006,1],[2007,0.5],[2009,0.39],[2010,0.35],[2011,0.29],[2012,0.2],[2013,0.18],[2014,0.15],[2016,0.03],[2017,0.02],[2026,0.07]],"trend":{"slope":-0.11724741434213347,"intercept":235.34499784632183,"r2":0.8115525598697911,"sd":0.4178138495352944,"years":2.567476624990309,"linear":false,"from":1999,"to":2026},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Rob Carlson, DNA cost and productivity data, aka 'Carlson curves' (synthesis.cc, 26 October 2022)","url":"https://www.synthesis.cc/synthesis/2022/10/dna-synthesis-cost-data"},"license":"Carlson's figures are CC BY-ND 4.0; the tabulated prices are reused as cited facts. 2026 point from Twist Bioscience's public price page.","note":"Price to the customer of double-stranded synthetic genes, in nominal US dollars per base, as tabulated by Carlson (1999 to 2017). 2026 is Twist Bioscience's list price for gene fragments (https://www.twistbioscience.com/products/genes: \"from $0.07/bp\", rising to $0.09 for 3 to 5 kb and $0.09 to $0.23 for cloned genes); GenScript lists cloned genes from $0.15 a base. Carlson's 2016 and 2017 values ($0.03 and $0.02) are lower than any list price found today and may reflect bulk contracts, so the curve has in practice been flat at about $0.07 to $0.15 for list-price genes since about 2014. Short column-synthesized oligos fell much more slowly, from $1 a base (1992) to $0.05 (2017) in the same table; array-synthesized oligo pools are far cheaper, which Carlson (2025) puts at $0.00001 to $0.001 a base, but need assembly and error correction to make genes.","field":"biology","milestones":["dna-synthesis-1-cent-base"]},{"id":"dram-cost-per-gb","name":"Price of computer memory (RAM) per gigabyte","short":"Memory price","unit":"USD per GB (constant 2020 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1957,3786000000000],[1959,604300000000],[1960,45840000000],[1965,21710000000],[1970,4896000000],[1973,2328000000],[1974,1651000000],[1975,240100000],[1976,104800000],[1977,98400000],[1978,60340000],[1979,23900000],[1980,20350000],[1981,12750000],[1982,5310000],[1983,5145000],[1984,3315000],[1985,720400],[1986,447500],[1987,303000],[1988,291000],[1989,236100],[1990,90100],[1991,75530],[1992,48420],[1993,47020],[1994,45840],[1995,44580],[1996,8660],[1997,3477],[1998,1340],[1999,1214],[2000,1045],[2001,215.7],[2002,192.1],[2003,107.1],[2004,104.4],[2005,100.9],[2006,93.39],[2007,30.44],[2008,11.74],[2009,11.78],[2010,11.59],[2011,5.898],[2012,4.127],[2013,4.067],[2014,4.002],[2015,3.998],[2016,2.961],[2017,2.899],[2018,2.83],[2019,2.78],[2020,2.746],[2021,2.477],[2022,1.862],[2023,1.088]],"trend":{"slope":-0.19379477507275145,"intercept":390.94124305862346,"r2":0.9776270276122199,"sd":0.5201211467089965,"years":1.5533442300029665,"linear":false,"from":1957,"to":2023},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Historical cost of computer memory and storage (John C. McCallum, 2023, adjusted with the US CPI)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historical-cost-of-computer-memory-and-storage"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID processing); underlying compilation by John C. McCallum","note":"Cheapest retail or catalogue price McCallum found each year for main memory (magnetic core before the mid-1970s, then DRAM chips and modules), converted by OWID to constant 2020 US$ with the US consumer price index, and here from dollars per terabyte to dollars per gigabyte (4 significant figures). OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28; the series ends in 2023. McCallum's original site (jcmit.net) no longer serves his tables. DRAM prices are cyclical, so single years can sit well off the trend.","field":"electronics","milestones":[]},{"id":"frontiermath-score","name":"Best score on FrontierMath tiers 1-3 (Epoch AI's runs, version 2)","short":"FrontierMath 1-3","unit":"percent solved","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2024.066,0],[2024.27,0.7],[2024.959,14.74],[2025.082,18.6],[2025.288,36.14],[2025.597,55.44],[2025.764,55.79],[2025.942,74],[2026.173,82.46],[2026.307,87.72],[2026.518,89.12],[2026.671,93.68]],"trend":{"slope":41.224915827673655,"intercept":-83452.55619823483,"r2":0.9578414292421384,"sd":7.655045437681669,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2024.066,"to":2026.671},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, Benchmarking Hub (frontiermath_tiers_1_3_v2.csv in benchmark_data.zip)","url":"https://epoch.ai/benchmarks"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"FrontierMath is a set of unpublished, hard mathematics problems written by mathematicians, with answers a computer can check; tiers 1 to 3 run from advanced undergraduate to early research level. Values are the best score Epoch AI measured for any model released by each date, from Epoch's CSV (downloaded 2026-10-28). Epoch released version 2 on 12 June 2026 after fixing errors in 42 percent of problems and re-ran older models, so these values are higher than the version 1 scores reported at the time (on version 1 the best was 40.7 at the end of 2025, GPT-5.2, and 52.4 in April 2026). The AI Digest 2025 survey's median for the end of 2025 was 40 percent on version 1, almost exactly right (40.7); the Forecasting Research Institute's LEAP experts (mid-2025) expected 31 percent then, 55 by the end of 2027 and 75 by the end of 2030, all far too low. Epoch wrote in September 2025 that FrontierMath \"could be solved as early as 2027 on current trends\". OpenAI funded FrontierMath and has access to much of it. Scores saturate, so the straight-line trend is a poor guide near 100 percent.","field":"math","milestones":["frontiermath-50"]},{"id":"frontiermath-tier4-score","name":"Best score on FrontierMath tier 4, research-level problems (Epoch AI's runs, version 2)","short":"FrontierMath tier 4","unit":"percent solved","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2025.082,0],[2025.288,4.88],[2025.597,21.95],[2025.942,46],[2026.173,58.54],[2026.307,78.05],[2026.436,90.2],[2026.671,97.6],[2026.742,100]],"trend":{"slope":65.49349760933832,"intercept":-132636.31142901178,"r2":0.9823090084929558,"sd":5.582785323920256,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2025.082,"to":2026.742},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, Benchmarking Hub (frontiermath_tier_4_v2.csv in benchmark_data.zip)","url":"https://epoch.ai/benchmarks"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Tier 4 is a small set of research-level problems written by mathematicians (48 in version 1, 41 in version 2 of June 2026). Values are the best score Epoch AI measured for any model released by each date (CSV downloaded 2026-10-28); GPT-6.1 Sol solved all 41. On version 1, still used for the AI Digest 2026 survey, the best score was 31.3 percent at the end of 2025 and 47.9 by May 2026; the survey's median for the end of 2026 was 62 percent, and a Manifold market on the end-of-2026 score resolved at 90 percent or more in September 2026, so forecasters were far too low. With so few problems, each is worth about 2.4 points, and the series is now saturated.","field":"math","milestones":["frontiermath-tier4-50","frontiermath-tier4-solved"]},{"id":"fusion-triple-product","name":"Record fusion triple product in magnetic confinement","short":"Fusion triple product","unit":"keV·s/m³","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[1957,900000000000000],[1969,20000000000000000],[1971,68000000000000000],[1972,240000000000000000],[1974,1300000000000000000],[1976,3200000000000000000],[1978,24000000000000000000],[1984,120000000000000000000],[1991,610000000000000000000],[1995,790000000000000000000]],"trend":{"slope":0.1737333901318286,"intercept":-325.09584873316476,"r2":0.9382716498103902,"sd":0.5235046498948583,"years":1.7327123786369458,"linear":false,"from":1957,"to":1995},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Wurzel and Hsu, Continuing progress toward fusion energy breakeven and gain as measured against the Lawson criterion, Physics of Plasmas 32, 112106 (2025), arXiv:2505.03834","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.03834"},"license":"Paper under the arXiv non-exclusive license; the underlying dataset (github.com/swurzel/lawson-criterion-paper) is MIT-licensed","note":"The Lawson triple product n_i0 T_i0 tau_E* (peak ion density times peak ion temperature times energy confinement time, corrected for transient heating), the record for magnetic confinement devices (tokamaks, pinches, stellarators) by year, from Tables 1 to 3 of Wurzel and Hsu (2025) and their 2022 paper (arXiv:2105.10954). By their Table 3 (2022), D-T ignition needs at least 2.9e21 keV·s/m³ at 14 keV, and Q_fuel = 1 needs 4.6e20. The magnetic record has stood since TFTR in 1995: JT-60U reached 5.6e20 in 1998 and JET 2.2e20 in its 2021 D-T campaign, and the machines designed to pass ignition (SPARC, projected 6.2e21; ITER, projected 7.4e21) are still being built. The best stellarator is Wendelstein 7-X at 6.2e19 (2017); its 2025 long-pulse record had no published value at the time of checking. Inertial confinement uses a different triple product (n ⟨T⟩ tau_stag) and a different ignition condition, so it is not mixed in: NIF holds that record at 1.7e22 (shot N170827, 2017), and its shot N210808 (2021) reached hot-spot ignition at 1.6e22. After ignition the triple product stops being a useful measure for ICF; NIF's later shots are measured by gain (Q_sci 1.51 in December 2022, 4.13 in April 2025).","field":"physics","milestones":["fusion-triple-product-ignition"]},{"id":"gpu-flops-per-dollar","name":"GPU price-performance (FP32 FLOP/s per dollar, record-setting GPUs)","short":"GPU FLOP/s per dollar","unit":"FLOP/s per USD","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[2008,958551617.87],[2010,3168336673.35],[2013,6403697996.92],[2014,9072859744.99],[2016,14813021702.84],[2017,16223175965.67],[2020,42589413447.78],[2022,61481481481.48]],"trend":{"slope":0.12223141103570846,"intercept":-236.29061231333503,"r2":0.9767924258425197,"sd":0.0966828569730222,"years":2.462787536470792,"linear":false,"from":2008,"to":2022},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Epoch AI, Machine Learning Hardware dataset","url":"https://epoch.ai/data/machine-learning-hardware"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Computed from Epoch AI's ml_hardware.csv (downloaded 2026-10-27) as FP32 peak FLOP/s divided by release price in nominal USD, keeping only GPUs that set a new record; the dataset has few priced consumer GPUs after 2022. ML accelerators are better measured in tensor FP16/FP8, where price-performance is higher (for example H100 SXM at about 2.9e10 dense FP16 FLOP/s per dollar and GB200 at about 6.8e10). Epoch's 2022 study of 470 GPUs found FP32 FLOP/s per dollar doubling about every 2.5 years, and every 2.07 years for GPUs used in ML (https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance).","field":"electronics","milestones":[]},{"id":"hdd-cost-per-gb","name":"Price of hard disk storage per gigabyte","short":"Disk price","unit":"USD per GB (constant 2020 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1956,87540000],[1959,67590000],[1960,31480000],[1964,29380000],[1966,8366000],[1970,1732000],[1973,1514000],[1974,971200],[1975,890000],[1979,659500],[1980,581100],[1981,526700],[1982,496200],[1983,311600],[1984,93410],[1985,75510],[1986,43570],[1987,34100],[1988,21800],[1989,15620],[1990,6474],[1991,5305],[1992,2582],[1993,1286],[1994,756.6],[1995,363.2],[1996,210.5],[1997,78.03],[1998,39.45],[1999,13.73],[2000,6.12],[2001,3.785],[2002,1.75],[2003,1.055],[2004,0.8349],[2005,0.5384],[2006,0.2808],[2007,0.2496],[2008,0.1202],[2009,0.08443],[2010,0.05341],[2011,0.04218],[2012,0.04133],[2013,0.04073],[2014,0.03826],[2015,0.03093],[2016,0.02987],[2017,0.0264],[2018,0.02409],[2019,0.01898],[2020,0.01625],[2021,0.01552],[2022,0.01264],[2023,0.01062]],"trend":{"slope":-0.17933368525093743,"intercept":360.0398621165235,"r2":0.9578181726011048,"sd":0.6804917296684976,"years":1.6786026297444174,"linear":false,"from":1956,"to":2023},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Historical cost of computer memory and storage (John C. McCallum, 2023, adjusted with the US CPI)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historical-cost-of-computer-memory-and-storage"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID processing); underlying compilation by John C. McCallum","note":"Cheapest price McCallum found each year for hard disk drives (IBM's RAMAC in 1956 onward), converted by OWID to constant 2020 US$ with the US consumer price index, and here from dollars per terabyte to dollars per gigabyte (4 significant figures). OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28; the series ends in 2023. The decline has slowed since about 2010, from halving every 1 to 2 years to every 4 or so.","field":"electronics","milestones":["hdd-1-dollar-gb"]},{"id":"hle-score","name":"Best score on Humanity's Last Exam (full set, no tools, run by Scale AI)","short":"Humanity's Last Exam","unit":"percent correct","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2024.73,4.6],[2024.959,7.96],[2025.227,18.16],[2025.288,20.32],[2025.425,21.64],[2025.597,25.32],[2025.762,31.64],[2025.879,37.52],[2026.134,46.44],[2026.671,54.8]],"trend":{"slope":27.63338719521347,"intercept":-55946.44272752439,"r2":0.9823070375069108,"sd":2.256014196291457,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2024.73,"to":2026.671},"scenarios":[{"id":"polymarket-2026","name":"Polymarket, end of 2026","kind":"market","points":[[2026.671,54.8],[2027,60]],"low":[[2027,58]],"high":[[2027,65]],"note":"Polymarket's \"Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam in 2026?\" market (resolved from the official HLE results at agi.safe.ai) on 28 October 2026: 86.5 percent on 58 or more, 48 percent on 60 or more, 16 percent on 65 or more and 6 percent on 80 or more, so a median near 60 with about 70 percent between 58 and 65. The market is small (a few thousand dollars traded).","sources":[{"title":"Polymarket, Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam in 2026? (gamma-api.polymarket.com, read 2026-10-28)","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723190142922"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Scale AI, Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard, and Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub (hle_external.csv)","url":"https://labs.scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam"},"license":"Scores are reported facts; Epoch AI's compilation is CC BY 4.0 (the HLE dataset itself is MIT)","note":"Humanity's Last Exam (Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, 2025) is 2,500 closed-ended questions at the frontier of expert knowledge across many subjects, written to be hard for AI. Values are the best score on the full multimodal set without tools, as run by Scale AI, for any model released by each date (from Scale's leaderboard and Epoch AI's copy, downloaded 2026-10-28). Labs report higher scores for their own runs: without tools, Claude Mythos Preview 56.8 (April 2026) and Claude Fable 5.1 60.9 (September 2026), though Scale measured Fable 5.1 at 46.5; with search and code tools, Claude Opus 5.5 reported 67.7 (September 2026). Not every answer key is right: FutureHouse estimated in July 2025 that 29 percent (plus or minus 3.7) of the text-only chemistry and biology answers conflict with the published literature, and the HLE team's own check found about 18 percent of a subset problematic, so the practical ceiling is below 100 and the trend is a poor guide above about 80.","field":"computing","milestones":["hle-50","hle-80"]},{"id":"launch-cost-per-kg","name":"Cost to launch a kilogram to low Earth orbit (cheapest vehicle available)","short":"Launch cost per kg","unit":"USD per kg (constant 2021 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1962,14900],[1965,8200],[1967,5400],[1985,5100],[2010,2600],[2018,1500]],"trend":{"slope":-0.013555315905577623,"intercept":30.586862525242694,"r2":0.871382192145651,"sd":0.14179954040337212,"years":22.207523436625774,"linear":false,"from":1962,"to":2018},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"CSIS Aerospace Security Project (2022), via Our World in Data, Cost of space launches to low Earth orbit","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID processing); underlying data CSIS","note":"The record line of the cheapest vehicle available: of the 60 vehicles in the CSIS table (first flights 1962 to 2019), only those whose cost per kilogram beat every earlier vehicle are kept, dated by first successful launch. Cost is the price of a dedicated launch divided by the vehicle's LEO payload capacity, in constant 2021 US$. Earlier versions of this file plotted every vehicle; small rockets cost 5 to 30 times more per kilogram at any date, so that cloud had no usable trend (r² 0.14). The record line stalled from 1967 to 2010 and then fell fast with SpaceX. These are list prices for fully expendable payload capacity; SpaceX's internal cost with booster reuse is lower, but not published. The CSIS table ends in 2019 (OWID checked 2026-10-28) and has no Starship point. Original CSIS page: https://aerospace.csis.org/data/space-launch-to-low-earth-orbit-how-much-does-it-cost/","field":"engineering","milestones":["launch-1000-dollars-kg","launch-100-dollars-kg"]},{"id":"life-expectancy-65-income","name":"Remaining life expectancy at 65 by country income group","short":"Life expectancy at 65 by income","unit":"years","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[],"trend":null,"scenarios":[],"series":[{"id":"world","name":"World","points":[[1950,11.38],[1955,11.88],[1960,11.65],[1965,12.53],[1970,12.94],[1975,13.46],[1980,13.88],[1985,14.19],[1990,14.65],[1991,14.74],[1992,14.83],[1993,14.83],[1994,14.89],[1995,15],[1996,15.11],[1997,15.22],[1998,15.3],[1999,15.35],[2000,15.47],[2001,15.58],[2002,15.64],[2003,15.7],[2004,15.86],[2005,15.94],[2006,16.09],[2007,16.21],[2008,16.28],[2009,16.43],[2010,16.54],[2011,16.66],[2012,16.77],[2013,16.89],[2014,17.01],[2015,17.07],[2016,17.19],[2017,17.23],[2018,17.35],[2019,17.45],[2020,16.77],[2021,16.21],[2022,17.34],[2023,17.57]],"trend":{"slope":0.08659607936553569,"intercept":-157.65805574151574,"r2":0.9560224675015343,"sd":0.24778162637575812,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,17.7],[2030,18.26],[2040,19.01],[2050,19.6],[2060,20.17],[2070,20.65],[2080,21.11],[2090,21.55],[2100,21.94]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown. The world reaches 19.6 years at 65 in 2050 and 21.9 in 2100, about 0.6 years a decade.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,17.7],[2030,18.3],[2040,19],[2050,19.6],[2060,20.2],[2062,20.3],[2065,20.7],[2070,21.8],[2075,23.4],[2080,25.2],[2085,26.8],[2090,27.9],[2095,28.6],[2100,29]],"low":[[2024,17.7],[2030,18.3],[2040,19],[2050,19.6],[2060,20.2],[2070,20.6],[2080,21.1],[2090,21.6],[2100,21.9]],"high":[[2024,17.7],[2030,18.3],[2040,19],[2045,19.3],[2050,20.2],[2055,21.7],[2060,23.5],[2065,25.3],[2070,26.6],[2075,27.6],[2080,28.1],[2085,28.5],[2090,28.8],[2095,29],[2100,29.2]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for the world. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 world life table that adds 7.3 years at 65 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). The world line weights each group's uptake by its share of the world's people over 60 in the UN projection, so world uptake reaches half about 17 years after arrival.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]},{"id":"high","name":"High-income countries","points":[[1950,13.21],[1955,13.65],[1960,13.88],[1965,14.14],[1970,14.41],[1975,14.94],[1980,15.51],[1985,16.04],[1990,16.76],[1991,16.89],[1992,17.05],[1993,17.02],[1994,17.24],[1995,17.26],[1996,17.41],[1997,17.57],[1998,17.66],[1999,17.72],[2000,17.97],[2001,18.18],[2002,18.26],[2003,18.31],[2004,18.68],[2005,18.73],[2006,19.02],[2007,19.15],[2008,19.25],[2009,19.47],[2010,19.57],[2011,19.69],[2012,19.73],[2013,19.87],[2014,20.06],[2015,19.97],[2016,20.16],[2017,20.15],[2018,20.24],[2019,20.39],[2020,19.76],[2021,19.8],[2022,20],[2023,20.6]],"trend":{"slope":0.12065167302582126,"intercept":-223.28532945075787,"r2":0.9720653613222497,"sd":0.27286424639331125,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,20.68],[2030,21.29],[2040,22.27],[2050,23.17],[2060,24.04],[2070,24.9],[2080,25.72],[2090,26.55],[2100,27.37]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown. High-income countries reach 23.2 in 2050 and 27.4 in 2100, about 0.9 years a decade against 1.1 over 2000 to 2023.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,20.7],[2030,21.3],[2040,22.3],[2050,23.2],[2060,24],[2062,24.2],[2065,25.2],[2070,28.4],[2075,31.6],[2080,33],[2085,33.6],[2090,34.1],[2095,34.5],[2100,34.9]],"low":[[2024,20.7],[2030,21.3],[2040,22.3],[2050,23.2],[2060,24],[2070,24.9],[2080,25.7],[2090,26.6],[2100,27.4]],"high":[[2024,20.7],[2030,21.3],[2040,22.3],[2045,22.7],[2050,24.8],[2055,28.4],[2060,30.9],[2065,31.9],[2070,32.4],[2075,32.8],[2080,33.2],[2085,33.7],[2090,34.1],[2095,34.5],[2100,34.9]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for high-income countries. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 life table for the group that adds 7.5 years at 65 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). The fastest gain is about 0.65 years a year, short of the one year a year that longevity escape velocity needs (node longevity-escape-velocity): a single reset raises the level but does not keep it rising.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]},{"id":"upper-middle","name":"Upper-middle-income countries","points":[[1950,10.04],[1955,10.5],[1960,9.55],[1965,11.35],[1970,12.05],[1975,12.73],[1980,13.2],[1985,13.64],[1990,14.18],[1991,14.33],[1992,14.42],[1993,14.4],[1994,14.44],[1995,14.6],[1996,14.76],[1997,14.87],[1998,14.97],[1999,14.98],[2000,15.05],[2001,15.15],[2002,15.21],[2003,15.28],[2004,15.41],[2005,15.53],[2006,15.67],[2007,15.82],[2008,15.9],[2009,16.05],[2010,16.18],[2011,16.33],[2012,16.47],[2013,16.6],[2014,16.71],[2015,16.83],[2016,16.93],[2017,16.98],[2018,17.19],[2019,17.29],[2020,16.71],[2021,16.34],[2022,17.19],[2023,17.28]],"trend":{"slope":0.09822947170415759,"intercept":-181.3325765870848,"r2":0.9769975599726344,"sd":0.20108122023767,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,17.45],[2030,18.28],[2040,19.32],[2050,20.23],[2060,21.11],[2070,21.93],[2080,22.7],[2090,23.43],[2100,24.09]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown. Upper-middle-income countries reach 20.2 in 2050 and 24.1 in 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]}]},{"id":"lower-middle","name":"Lower-middle-income countries","points":[[1950,10.96],[1955,11.27],[1960,11.55],[1965,11.64],[1970,11.9],[1975,12.28],[1980,12.56],[1985,12.64],[1990,12.78],[1991,12.79],[1992,12.82],[1993,12.86],[1994,12.9],[1995,12.96],[1996,13.03],[1997,13.12],[1998,13.21],[1999,13.3],[2000,13.39],[2001,13.46],[2002,13.54],[2003,13.6],[2004,13.65],[2005,13.7],[2006,13.76],[2007,13.83],[2008,13.9],[2009,14],[2010,14.1],[2011,14.23],[2012,14.34],[2013,14.45],[2014,14.56],[2015,14.67],[2016,14.77],[2017,14.87],[2018,14.93],[2019,15],[2020,14.22],[2021,13.06],[2022,15.19],[2023,15.29]],"trend":{"slope":0.06001979620586408,"intercept":-106.57123960391155,"r2":0.8313423701806316,"sd":0.3606592248217702,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,15.46],[2030,15.9],[2040,16.67],[2050,17.43],[2060,18.21],[2070,18.93],[2080,19.56],[2090,20.15],[2100,20.73]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown. Lower-middle-income countries reach 17.4 in 2050 and 20.7 in 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]}]},{"id":"low","name":"Low-income countries","points":[[1950,9.46],[1955,10.63],[1960,10.88],[1965,11.03],[1970,11.25],[1975,11.39],[1980,11.65],[1985,11.52],[1990,11.96],[1991,11.9],[1992,11.93],[1993,12.09],[1994,11.73],[1995,12.08],[1996,12.09],[1997,12.14],[1998,12.11],[1999,12.21],[2000,12.31],[2001,12.35],[2002,12.4],[2003,12.58],[2004,12.64],[2005,12.69],[2006,12.79],[2007,12.88],[2008,12.97],[2009,12.96],[2010,13.17],[2011,13.19],[2012,13.33],[2013,13.42],[2014,13.45],[2015,13.51],[2016,13.57],[2017,13.61],[2018,13.73],[2019,13.79],[2020,13.4],[2021,13.33],[2022,13.8],[2023,14.09]],"trend":{"slope":0.05667263564713464,"intercept":-100.85616906452651,"r2":0.9321240151642065,"sd":0.20402534630968733,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,14.11],[2030,14.33],[2040,14.69],[2050,15.03],[2060,15.47],[2070,16],[2080,16.51],[2090,17.02],[2100,17.57]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown. Low-income countries reach 15.0 in 2050 and 17.6 in 2100, under half a year a decade, so the gap to high-income countries at 65 widens from 6.5 years in 2023 to 8.1 in 2050 and 9.8 in 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,14.1],[2030,14.3],[2040,14.7],[2050,15],[2060,15.5],[2062,15.6],[2065,15.8],[2070,16.3],[2075,17],[2080,18.1],[2085,19.7],[2090,21.4],[2095,22.9],[2100,24]],"low":[[2024,14.1],[2030,14.3],[2040,14.7],[2050,15],[2060,15.5],[2070,16],[2080,16.5],[2090,17],[2100,17.6]],"high":[[2024,14.1],[2030,14.3],[2040,14.7],[2045,14.9],[2050,15.2],[2055,15.7],[2060,16.5],[2065,17.8],[2070,19.5],[2075,21.2],[2080,22.5],[2085,23.4],[2090,23.9],[2095,24.4],[2100,24.7]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for low-income countries. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 life table for the group that adds 7.2 years at 65, about as much as in rich countries, since it acts only on people who reach 65 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). With arrival in 2062 the gap at 65 between high- and low-income countries peaks at 14.6 years in 2075, against 9.0 without the therapy, then narrows to 10.9 by 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]},{"id":"best","name":"Best country","points":[[1840,11.05],[1845,11.4],[1850,12.26],[1855,11.98],[1860,12.93],[1865,13.23],[1870,12.51],[1875,12.22],[1880,13.36],[1885,13.46],[1890,13.55],[1895,13.89],[1900,13.38],[1905,13.9],[1910,13.93],[1915,13.61],[1920,14.08],[1925,14.36],[1930,14.54],[1935,14.19],[1940,14.24],[1945,15.56],[1950,14.95],[1955,15.62],[1960,16.09],[1965,15.74],[1970,15.67],[1975,15.99],[1980,16.68],[1985,17.48],[1990,18.33],[1991,18.55],[1992,18.61],[1993,18.7],[1994,19.02],[1995,18.91],[1996,19.45],[1997,19.6],[1998,19.76],[1999,19.66],[2000,20.14],[2001,20.39],[2002,20.61],[2003,20.68],[2004,20.89],[2005,20.77],[2006,21.04],[2007,21.15],[2008,21.19],[2009,21.48],[2010,21.38],[2011,21.29],[2012,21.46],[2013,21.62],[2014,21.81],[2015,22.01],[2016,22.24],[2017,22.51],[2018,22.81],[2019,23.07],[2020,22.55],[2021,22.79],[2022,21.94],[2023,23.19]],"trend":{"slope":0.1451481635117319,"intercept":-270.39091674504374,"r2":0.9771349376539682,"sd":0.2962169862194557,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,23.19],[2030,23.8],[2040,24.88],[2050,25.99],[2060,27.01],[2070,27.9],[2080,28.72],[2090,29.53],[2100,30.42]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The UN's medium variant for Hong Kong, the place with the highest projected value in each decade to 2100: 26.0 years in 2050 and 30.4 in 2100, about 1.0 year a decade, slower than the 1.4 a decade since 1970. The UN publishes prediction intervals only for life expectancy at birth, so no band is shown.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,23.2],[2030,23.8],[2040,24.9],[2050,26],[2060,27],[2062,27.2],[2065,28.2],[2070,31.4],[2075,34.5],[2080,35.9],[2085,36.5],[2090,37],[2095,37.4],[2100,37.9]],"low":[[2024,23.2],[2030,23.8],[2040,24.9],[2050,26],[2060,27],[2070,27.9],[2080,28.7],[2090,29.5],[2100,30.4]],"high":[[2024,23.2],[2030,23.8],[2040,24.9],[2045,25.4],[2050,27.6],[2055,31.3],[2060,33.8],[2065,34.8],[2070,35.4],[2075,35.8],[2080,36.2],[2085,36.6],[2090,37],[2095,37.4],[2100,37.9]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for Hong Kong. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On Hong Kong's 2023 UN life table that adds 7.5 years at 65 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake in the leading country follows the high-income curve: half of people over 60 8 years after arrival (scale 3 years), set between the United States' uptake of HIV therapy (53 percent of adults in care within about 2 years, HCSUS) and of statins in high-income countries (66.5 percent of people with heart disease in 2003 to 2009, PURE, as reported by Marcus et al. 2022). The fastest gain is about 0.65 years a year, short of the one year a year that longevity escape velocity needs.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024 (income groups and world); Our World in Data life tables, Human Mortality Database 2025 before 1950 (best country)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads"},"license":"CC BY 3.0 IGO (UN WPP); CC BY 4.0 (OWID)","note":"How many more years a 65-year-old could expect to live at that year's death rates (both sexes), for the four World Bank income groups and the world from UN World Population Prospects 2024 (CSV checked 2026-10-29; every fifth year 1950 to 1985, then every year to 2023), and for the best country or territory with at least 1 million people and complete death registration (those covered by the Human Mortality Database), from OWID's life tables (HMD before 1950, UN from 1950), every fifth year from 1840. Income groups use the World Bank classification of May 2024 for every year, as at birth. In 2023: high-income 20.6 years, upper-middle 17.3, lower-middle 15.3, low-income 14.1, world 17.6, and the record 23.2 (Hong Kong). The gap between rich and poor countries is much smaller at 65 than at birth, since most of the gap at birth is deaths of children and young adults, but it has grown, from 3.8 years in 1950 and 3.2 in 1970 to 6.5 in 2023: deaths from heart disease and stroke at older ages fell from about 1970 in rich countries far faster than in poor ones. Gains at old ages are what aging research targets. The best-country line crept from 11 to 15 years between 1840 and 1950 and has risen about 1.4 years a decade since 1970, led by Japan and then Hong Kong (Lithuania's UN estimates lead in the early 1960s; the 1945 value is from HMD and the 1950 one from the UN, so the two sources join with a small step).","field":"medicine","milestones":["life-expectancy-65-world-20","life-expectancy-65-high-income-25","life-expectancy-65-25","life-expectancy-65-30"]},{"id":"life-expectancy-best","name":"Record life expectancy at birth (best country each year)","short":"Record life expectancy","unit":"years","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[1840,43.98],[1845,45.99],[1850,49.52],[1855,50.43],[1860,49.99],[1865,50.42],[1870,50.86],[1875,47.63],[1880,51.89],[1885,51.04],[1890,50.44],[1895,54.01],[1900,53.47],[1905,57],[1910,58.04],[1915,58.4],[1920,58.91],[1925,63.17],[1930,64.9],[1935,66.51],[1940,66.74],[1945,68.38],[1950,71.59],[1955,73.43],[1960,73.56],[1965,73.87],[1970,74.66],[1975,74.98],[1980,76.14],[1985,77.8],[1990,78.99],[1991,79.26],[1992,79.3],[1993,79.45],[1994,79.84],[1995,79.68],[1996,80.36],[1997,80.58],[1998,80.65],[1999,80.61],[2000,81.18],[2001,81.51],[2002,81.8],[2003,81.85],[2004,82.13],[2005,82.01],[2006,82.37],[2007,82.55],[2008,82.63],[2009,82.97],[2010,82.92],[2011,83.16],[2012,83.42],[2013,83.7],[2014,83.93],[2015,84.15],[2016,84.38],[2017,84.66],[2018,84.99],[2019,85.26],[2020,84.71],[2021,85.08],[2022,84.05],[2023,85.51]],"trend":{"slope":0.19588330754615235,"intercept":-310.7354377352976,"r2":0.986224286816184,"sd":0.43577693774396653,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1950,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024 (Hong Kong)","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,85.63],[2030,86.44],[2040,87.79],[2050,89.08],[2060,90.28],[2070,91.37],[2080,92.39],[2090,93.37],[2100,94.42]],"low":[[2024,84.68],[2030,83.99],[2040,83.72],[2050,84.36],[2060,84.86],[2070,85.18],[2080,85.41],[2090,85.9],[2100,86.28]],"high":[[2024,86.59],[2030,88.94],[2040,91.43],[2050,93.71],[2060,95.87],[2070,97.56],[2080,99.23],[2090,101.06],[2100,102.69]],"note":"The UN's median for Hong Kong, the highest projected place in each decade to 2100, with its 95 percent prediction interval: 89.1 in 2050 and 94.4 in 2100 (Japan is close behind at 88.4 and 94.4). Gains slow to about 1.2 years a decade, because the UN's model has gains shrink as life expectancy rises, as they have in every country. Even the top of the band only reaches 100 around 2084.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]},{"id":"oeppen-vaupel","name":"Record line, 3 months a year","kind":"trend","points":[[2023,85.51],[2050,92.3],[2100,104.8]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"Oeppen and Vaupel's record line carried forward from the 2023 record: a quarter of a year of life expectancy per calendar year, the pace of record female life expectancy from 1840 to 2000, which gives 92.3 in 2050 and 104.8 in 2100. In this both-sexes series the record rose about 1.9 years a decade over 1950 to 1990 and 2.2 over 1990 to 2019, so it has not yet slowed. Olshansky et al. (Nature Aging 2024) argue it must: in eight of the longest-lived countries, Hong Kong and the US, gains have slowed since 1990, survival to 100 is unlikely to exceed 15 percent for women and 5 percent for men, and radical life extension is implausible this century unless biological aging itself can be slowed.","sources":[{"title":"Oeppen and Vaupel, Broken limits to life expectancy, Science 296:1029 (2002)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069675"},{"title":"Olshansky, Willcox, Demetrius and Beltrán-Sánchez, Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century, Nature Aging 4:1635 (2024)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-024-00702-3"}]},{"id":"metaculus-100","name":"Metaculus, a country at 100","kind":"market","points":[[2023,85.51],[2062,100]],"low":[[2023,85.51],[2075,100]],"high":[[2023,85.51],[2046,100]],"note":"The Metaculus community forecast for when any country first has a life expectancy at birth of 100 for both sexes: a median of 2062 with an interquartile range from late 2045 to after 2075 (about 35 percent on after 2075, when the question closes), from about 104 forecasters. Drawn as straight lines from the 2023 record to 100 at those dates. Forecasters here are far more optimistic than the UN, whose median never reaches 100 this century; the same year, 2062, is the tree's date for rejuvenation therapies. Metaculus blocks automated reading, so these figures come from search-engine snapshots (another showed a median of 2060), not the live value.","sources":[{"title":"Metaculus: when will any country have a life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years?","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/date-of-any-country-with-life-expectancy-100"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,85.6],[2030,86.4],[2040,87.8],[2050,89.1],[2060,90.3],[2065,91.5],[2070,93.9],[2075,97.3],[2080,99.3],[2090,100.7],[2100,101.8]],"low":[[2024,85.6],[2030,86.4],[2040,87.8],[2050,89.1],[2060,90.3],[2070,91.4],[2080,92.4],[2090,93.4],[2100,94.4]],"high":[[2024,85.6],[2030,86.4],[2040,87.8],[2045,88.5],[2050,90.3],[2055,93.4],[2060,96.5],[2065,97.9],[2070,98.7],[2075,99.2],[2080,99.7],[2090,100.7],[2100,101.8]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN median for Hong Kong. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, the baseline). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger; on Hong Kong's 2023 UN life table that adds 7.3 years to life expectancy at birth (my calculation), held fixed. Uptake: a logistic curve reaching half of older people 10 years after arrival (scale 3 years), my assumption for a reimbursed therapy in a rich country. With these assumptions the record reaches 90 around 2058 (2050 with the early arrival) and 100 around 2085 (2083 with the early arrival): a single reset adds about 7 years, so 100 still waits for the baseline to reach 93. Earlier steps on the tree (aging-drug-approved around 2040, senolytics-approved around 2036) are not modeled separately; if they work they would lift the baseline before 2062.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Life expectancy at birth (Riley 2005; Zijdeman et al. 2015; Human Mortality Database 2025; UN World Population Prospects 2024)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"The highest period life expectancy at birth (both sexes) among countries and territories with at least 1 million people that year, computed from the OWID life expectancy and population CSVs downloaded 2026-10-28; every fifth year to 1985, then every year to 2023. The population floor leaves out microstates such as Monaco and San Marino, whose UN estimates sit 1 to 2 years above any large country. This is the record line Oeppen and Vaupel (Science 296, 1029, 2002) drew, which rose about 3 months a year from 1840; they used women's life expectancy, which runs a few years higher. The leader passed from Sweden and Norway to Australia, Japan (1980s to 2010s) and Hong Kong. COVID-19 interrupted the rise in 2020 to 2022. The trend is a straight line, the classic description of the record.","field":"medicine","milestones":["life-expectancy-80","life-expectancy-85","life-expectancy-90","life-expectancy-100"]},{"id":"life-expectancy-income","name":"Life expectancy at birth by country income group","short":"Life expectancy by income","unit":"years","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[],"trend":null,"scenarios":[],"series":[{"id":"world","name":"World","points":[[1770,28.5],[1800,28.5],[1820,29],[1850,29.3],[1870,29.7],[1900,32],[1913,34.1],[1950,46.39],[1955,50.21],[1960,47.82],[1965,54],[1970,56.27],[1975,58.27],[1980,60.5],[1985,62.21],[1990,63.95],[1991,64.06],[1992,64.29],[1993,64.43],[1994,64.3],[1995,64.88],[1996,65.2],[1997,65.54],[1998,65.74],[1999,66.04],[2000,66.43],[2001,66.75],[2002,67.07],[2003,67.4],[2004,67.74],[2005,68.14],[2006,68.61],[2007,69.03],[2008,69.3],[2009,69.68],[2010,70.09],[2011,70.4],[2012,70.82],[2013,71.14],[2014,71.4],[2015,71.61],[2016,71.88],[2017,72.07],[2018,72.39],[2019,72.61],[2020,71.92],[2021,70.86],[2022,72.64],[2023,73.17]],"trend":{"slope":0.31057343283459465,"intercept":-554.616737240277,"r2":0.9834218527116966,"sd":0.537962324837138,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,73.32],[2030,74.39],[2040,75.81],[2050,77.02],[2060,78.06],[2070,79.06],[2080,79.98],[2090,80.86],[2100,81.73]],"low":[[2024,72.92],[2030,73.38],[2040,74.37],[2050,75.25],[2060,76.09],[2070,76.78],[2080,77.61],[2090,78.32],[2100,79.04]],"high":[[2024,73.69],[2030,75.27],[2040,77.11],[2050,78.5],[2060,79.8],[2070,80.95],[2080,81.97],[2090,82.95],[2100,83.91]],"note":"The UN's medium variant, with the 95 percent prediction interval from its probabilistic projections. Each country's gains are projected by a Bayesian model of how gains slow as life expectancy rises, with the 2020 to 2023 COVID years left out of the fit. The world reaches 77.0 in 2050 (75.3 to 78.5) and 81.7 in 2100 (79.0 to 83.9).","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]},{"id":"ihme-gbd-2021","name":"IHME GBD reference","kind":"projection","points":[[2023,73.17],[2050,78.2]],"low":[[2023,73.17],[2050,75.2]],"high":[[2023,73.17],[2050,80.3]],"note":"IHME's Global Burden of Disease reference scenario: world life expectancy rises from 73.6 years in 2022 (IHME's own estimate) to 78.2 in 2050 (95 percent uncertainty 75.2 to 80.3), about 0.16 years a year against 0.27 a year over 1990 to 2019. The line starts from the UN's 2023 value so it joins the data.","sources":[{"title":"GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators, Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022 to 2050, Lancet 403:2204 (2024)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00685-8"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,73.3],[2030,74.4],[2040,75.8],[2050,77],[2060,78.1],[2062,78.3],[2065,78.8],[2070,80],[2075,81.7],[2080,83.6],[2085,85.2],[2090,86.5],[2095,87.4],[2100,88]],"low":[[2024,73.3],[2030,74.4],[2040,75.8],[2050,77],[2060,78.1],[2070,79.1],[2080,80],[2090,80.9],[2100,81.7]],"high":[[2024,73.3],[2030,74.4],[2040,75.8],[2045,76.5],[2050,77.5],[2055,79.1],[2060,81],[2065,82.9],[2070,84.4],[2075,85.4],[2080,86.2],[2085,86.8],[2090,87.3],[2095,87.7],[2100,88.2]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path above. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 life tables that adds 6.5 years to the world's life expectancy at birth, 7.3 in high-income, 7.1 in upper-middle, 6.0 in lower-middle and 5.5 in low-income countries, where fewer people live to 60 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). The world line weights each group's uptake by its share of the world's people over 60 in the UN projection (in 2050: high income 20 percent, upper-middle 42, lower-middle 33, low 5), so world uptake reaches half about 17 years after arrival. With arrival in 2062 the world gains 0.9 years by 2070, 3.6 by 2080 and 6.3 by 2100; a single reset adds at most about 0.4 years a year, so on its own it does not reach longevity escape velocity (node longevity-escape-velocity).","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]},{"id":"high","name":"High-income countries","points":[[1950,61.83],[1955,66.53],[1960,68.11],[1965,69.37],[1970,70.35],[1975,71.78],[1980,73],[1985,74.21],[1990,75.29],[1991,75.49],[1992,75.76],[1993,75.81],[1994,76.1],[1995,76.22],[1996,76.55],[1997,76.89],[1998,77.09],[1999,77.26],[2000,77.61],[2001,77.89],[2002,78.04],[2003,78.15],[2004,78.62],[2005,78.7],[2006,79.05],[2007,79.25],[2008,79.42],[2009,79.72],[2010,79.93],[2011,80.09],[2012,80.23],[2013,80.43],[2014,80.64],[2015,80.56],[2016,80.74],[2017,80.77],[2018,80.9],[2019,81.1],[2020,80.18],[2021,79.94],[2022,80.4],[2023,81.44]],"trend":{"slope":0.20192984257498525,"intercept":-326.5137064493738,"r2":0.9606742126477585,"sd":0.545055395523455,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,81.58],[2030,82.48],[2040,83.87],[2050,85.16],[2060,86.39],[2070,87.55],[2080,88.65],[2090,89.75],[2100,90.81]],"low":[[2024,81.26],[2030,81.56],[2040,82.43],[2050,83.49],[2060,84.36],[2070,85.25],[2080,86.16],[2090,86.99],[2100,88.08]],"high":[[2024,81.89],[2030,83.3],[2040,85.03],[2050,86.59],[2060,88.13],[2070,89.54],[2080,90.85],[2090,92.25],[2100,93.56]],"note":"The UN's medium variant for the high-income group, with the 95 percent prediction interval: 85.2 in 2050 (83.5 to 86.6) and 90.8 in 2100 (88.1 to 93.6), about 1.2 years a decade.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]},{"id":"ihme-gbd-2021","name":"IHME GBD reference (high-income super-region)","kind":"projection","points":[[2023,81.44],[2050,83.3]],"low":[[2023,81.44],[2050,82.9]],"high":[[2023,81.44],[2050,83.6]],"note":"IHME's reference scenario for its high-income super-region: 81.4 years in 2022 to 83.3 in 2050 (95 percent uncertainty 82.9 to 83.6), the smallest gain of any region and about 2 years below the UN. IHME does not publish World Bank income groups in this paper; its high-income super-region (western Europe, high-income North America and Asia Pacific, Australasia, southern Latin America) is close to the World Bank group but leaves out, for example, the Gulf states. The line starts from the UN's 2023 value so it joins the data.","sources":[{"title":"GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators, Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022 to 2050, Lancet 403:2204 (2024)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00685-8"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,81.6],[2030,82.5],[2040,83.9],[2050,85.2],[2060,86.4],[2062,86.6],[2065,87.7],[2070,91],[2075,94.2],[2080,95.7],[2085,96.5],[2090,97],[2095,97.6],[2100,98.1]],"low":[[2024,81.6],[2030,82.5],[2040,83.9],[2050,85.2],[2060,86.4],[2070,87.6],[2080,88.7],[2090,89.7],[2100,90.8]],"high":[[2024,81.6],[2030,82.5],[2040,83.9],[2045,84.5],[2050,86.8],[2055,90.4],[2060,93],[2065,94.1],[2070,94.8],[2075,95.4],[2080,96],[2085,96.5],[2090,97.1],[2095,97.6],[2100,98.1]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for high-income countries. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 life table for the group that adds 7.3 years at birth (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). With arrival in 2062, high-income countries gain 3.4 years by 2070 and 7.1 by 2080, about 0.7 years a year at the fastest.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]},{"id":"upper-middle","name":"Upper-middle-income countries","points":[[1950,45.43],[1955,49.09],[1960,41.6],[1965,54.25],[1970,57.85],[1975,61.04],[1980,63.51],[1985,65.74],[1990,67.43],[1991,67.78],[1992,67.98],[1993,68.03],[1994,68.19],[1995,68.6],[1996,69.09],[1997,69.51],[1998,69.83],[1999,69.93],[2000,70.18],[2001,70.47],[2002,70.71],[2003,70.95],[2004,71.08],[2005,71.59],[2006,71.98],[2007,72.4],[2008,72.62],[2009,73.08],[2010,73.35],[2011,73.74],[2012,74.09],[2013,74.38],[2014,74.64],[2015,74.91],[2016,75.1],[2017,75.29],[2018,75.62],[2019,75.82],[2020,75.03],[2021,74.34],[2022,75.73],[2023,75.88]],"trend":{"slope":0.3124387118502057,"intercept":-554.9679361017897,"r2":0.9679930967181299,"sd":0.7579490744581163,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,76.06],[2030,77.51],[2040,79.21],[2050,80.7],[2060,82],[2070,83.22],[2080,84.3],[2090,85.32],[2100,86.29]],"low":[[2024,75.28],[2030,75.93],[2040,76.84],[2050,77.89],[2060,79.04],[2070,80.18],[2080,81.3],[2090,82.25],[2100,83.12]],"high":[[2024,76.78],[2030,78.95],[2040,81.26],[2050,83],[2060,84.67],[2070,85.97],[2080,87.37],[2090,88.72],[2100,89.69]],"note":"The UN's medium variant for the upper-middle-income group (led by China), with the 95 percent prediction interval: 80.7 in 2050 (77.9 to 83.0) and 86.3 in 2100 (83.1 to 89.7). IHME does not forecast this group.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]}]},{"id":"lower-middle","name":"Lower-middle-income countries","points":[[1950,40.78],[1955,43.86],[1960,46.17],[1965,47.26],[1970,49.24],[1975,51.28],[1980,54.56],[1985,56.85],[1990,58.53],[1991,58.66],[1992,59.04],[1993,59.27],[1994,59.5],[1995,59.77],[1996,60.05],[1997,60.38],[1998,60.71],[1999,61.12],[2000,61.55],[2001,61.92],[2002,62.37],[2003,62.76],[2004,63.14],[2005,63.52],[2006,63.96],[2007,64.36],[2008,64.63],[2009,65.14],[2010,65.48],[2011,65.94],[2012,66.32],[2013,66.66],[2014,67.01],[2015,67.33],[2016,67.67],[2017,67.99],[2018,68.25],[2019,68.53],[2020,67.91],[2021,66.19],[2022,69.25],[2023,69.59]],"trend":{"slope":0.3627802990787781,"intercept":-664.0104460306964,"r2":0.9812673031767037,"sd":0.6687128557420343,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,69.8],[2030,70.9],[2040,72.56],[2050,74.09],[2060,75.5],[2070,76.79],[2080,77.97],[2090,79.06],[2100,80.12]],"low":[[2024,69.2],[2030,69.24],[2040,70.17],[2050,71.08],[2060,71.95],[2070,72.83],[2080,73.7],[2090,74.56],[2100,75.74]],"high":[[2024,70.42],[2030,72.43],[2040,74.85],[2050,76.88],[2060,78.58],[2070,80.11],[2080,81.52],[2090,82.66],[2100,83.76]],"note":"The UN's medium variant for the lower-middle-income group (led by India), with the 95 percent prediction interval: 74.1 in 2050 (71.1 to 76.9) and 80.1 in 2100 (75.7 to 83.8). IHME does not forecast this group.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]}]},{"id":"low","name":"Low-income countries","points":[[1950,31.21],[1955,38.48],[1960,40.53],[1965,42.1],[1970,43.84],[1975,44.81],[1980,46.68],[1985,45.73],[1990,49.21],[1991,48.95],[1992,49.01],[1993,50.02],[1994,46.34],[1995,50.79],[1996,50.96],[1997,51.41],[1998,50.94],[1999,52.15],[2000,53.15],[2001,53.68],[2002,54.18],[2003,55.13],[2004,55.68],[2005,56.25],[2006,57.05],[2007,57.75],[2008,58.41],[2009,57.98],[2010,59.53],[2011,59.4],[2012,60.36],[2013,60.89],[2014,60.9],[2015,61.16],[2016,61.56],[2017,61.77],[2018,62.71],[2019,63.04],[2020,63.27],[2021,62.78],[2022,63.48],[2023,64.94]],"trend":{"slope":0.4531406968100179,"intercept":-852.4253786537756,"r2":0.9512944372336031,"sd":1.3679000396169443,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":1970,"to":2023},"scenarios":[{"id":"un-wpp-2024","name":"UN WPP 2024","kind":"projection","points":[[2024,65.13],[2030,66.25],[2040,67.87],[2050,69.31],[2060,70.67],[2070,71.98],[2080,73.26],[2090,74.47],[2100,75.68]],"low":[[2024,64.7],[2030,65.13],[2040,66.16],[2050,67.09],[2060,67.88],[2070,68.92],[2080,69.67],[2090,70.51],[2100,71.28]],"high":[[2024,65.52],[2030,67.31],[2040,69.49],[2050,71.49],[2060,73.17],[2070,74.7],[2080,76.33],[2090,77.78],[2100,79.34]],"note":"The UN's medium variant for the low-income group, with the 95 percent prediction interval: 69.3 in 2050 (67.1 to 71.5) and 75.7 in 2100 (71.3 to 79.3), about 1.4 years a decade against 5.1 a decade over 2000 to 2023. The gap to high-income countries barely narrows, from 16.5 years in 2023 to 15.9 in 2050 and 15.1 in 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, demographic indicators, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/2_Indicators%20(Probabilistic)/EXCEL_FILES/4_Mortality/UN_PPP2024_Output_e0.xlsx"}]},{"id":"ihme-gbd-2021","name":"IHME GBD reference (sub-Saharan Africa)","kind":"projection","points":[[2023,64.94],[2050,73.6]],"low":[[2023,64.94],[2050,69.4]],"high":[[2023,64.94],[2050,76.2]],"note":"IHME does not publish World Bank income groups in this paper; this is its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, home to all but a handful of the 26 low-income countries (the others include Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen) but also to richer ones such as Nigeria and South Africa. IHME puts the region at 64.4 years in 2022 and 73.6 in 2050 (95 percent uncertainty 69.4 to 76.2), the largest gain of any region; the UN has sub-Saharan Africa going from 61.1 to 66.8 over the same years, so the two differ by about 3 years now and 7 by 2050. The line starts from the UN's 2023 low-income value so it joins the data.","sources":[{"title":"GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators, Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022 to 2050, Lancet 403:2204 (2024)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00685-8"}]},{"id":"model-rejuvenation","name":"Model: rejuvenation at the tree's date","kind":"model","points":[[2024,65.1],[2030,66.3],[2040,67.9],[2050,69.3],[2060,70.7],[2062,70.9],[2065,71.4],[2070,72.2],[2075,73.2],[2080,74.5],[2085,76.1],[2090,77.9],[2095,79.4],[2100,80.6]],"low":[[2024,65.1],[2030,66.3],[2040,67.9],[2050,69.3],[2060,70.7],[2070,72],[2080,73.3],[2090,74.5],[2100,75.7]],"high":[[2024,65.1],[2030,66.3],[2040,67.9],[2045,68.6],[2050,69.4],[2055,70.3],[2060,71.5],[2065,72.9],[2070,74.7],[2075,76.4],[2080,77.9],[2085,78.9],[2090,79.8],[2095,80.5],[2100,81.1]],"note":"A simple model, not a forecast; every point is computed, none is data. Baseline (no new aging biology): the UN medium path for low-income countries. On top of it, rejuvenation therapies (node aging-reversal) arrive in 2062, the tree's likely date; the band uses the tree's window, arrival in 2045 (high) or 2110 (low, which leaves the baseline unchanged to 2100). Effect: the aging-reversal criterion's 10-year reset, applied once to everyone 60 and over, so they die at the rates of people 10 years younger. On the UN's 2023 life table for the group that adds 5.5 years at birth, less than in richer countries because fewer people live to 60 (my calculation). The added years are held fixed and scaled by the share of people over 60 who have had it. Uptake differs by income group, the point of the comparison. My logistic curves reach half of people over 60 8 years after arrival in high-income countries (scale 3 years, so 90 percent after about 15) and 25 years after in low-income countries (scale 6, 90 percent after about 38), with 15 and 20 years for upper-middle and lower-middle income (my interpolation). They are set from two past therapies. Combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (1996): in the United States 53 percent of adults in HIV care were taking it by late 1997 to January 1998 (HCSUS), while in low-income countries coverage of all people with HIV was 19 percent in 2010 and first passed half in 2016, 20 years on, and only after generic drugs and donor programmes such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund (World Bank, from UNAIDS). Statins (first approved in 1987) had no such push: in 2003 to 2009, 66.5 percent of people with heart disease took one in high-income countries against 3.3 percent in low-income ones (PURE), and in national surveys from 2013 to 2019 still only 8.2 percent did in low-income countries (Marcus et al. 2022). With arrival in 2062, low-income countries gain 1.2 years by 2080 and 4.9 by 2100, and the gap to high-income countries widens from 15.7 years in 2062 to 21.0 in 2075 before narrowing again to 17.5 in 2100.","sources":[{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, complete life tables, both sexes, 1950 to 2023 (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Life_Table_Complete_Medium_Both_1950-2023.csv.gz"},{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, population by five-year age group, medium variant (CSV)","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_PopulationByAge5GroupSex_Medium.csv.gz"},{"title":"Cunningham et al. (HCSUS), Prevalence and predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy use in patients with HIV infection in the United States, JAIDS 25:115 (2000)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1097/00042560-200010010-00005"},{"title":"World Bank World Development Indicators: antiretroviral therapy coverage, percent of people living with HIV (SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS), low-income countries, from UNAIDS","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.HIV.ARTC.ZS?locations=XM"},{"title":"Marcus et al., Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries, Lancet Global Health 10:e369 (2022), which also reports the PURE study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00551-9"}]}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"UN World Population Prospects 2024, via Our World in Data (Riley 2005 for the world before 1950)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?country=OWID_WRL~High-income+countries~Upper-middle-income+countries~Lower-middle-income+countries~Low-income+countries"},"license":"CC BY 3.0 IGO (UN WPP); CC BY 4.0 (OWID)","note":"Period life expectancy at birth, both sexes, for the four World Bank income groups and the world, from UN World Population Prospects 2024 (the numbers OWID republishes, checked against the UN's CSV on 2026-10-29), every fifth year to 1985, then every year to 2023. The world line also carries James Riley's long-run estimates for 1770 to 1913. The UN groups countries by the World Bank classification current in May 2024 (fiscal year 2024, based on 2022 income per person) and applies it to every year back to 1950, so \"low-income\" means today's low-income countries throughout, not the countries that were poorest in 1950. In 2023: high-income (90 countries, 1.26 billion people, such as the United States, Japan and Germany) 81.4 years; upper-middle (54 countries, 2.81 billion, such as China, Indonesia and Brazil) 75.9; lower-middle (54 countries, 3.25 billion, such as India, Pakistan and Nigeria) 69.6; low-income (26 countries, 0.74 billion, such as Ethiopia, DR Congo and Sudan) 64.9; world 73.2. The gap between high- and low-income countries was 30.6 years in 1950, 26.5 in 1970, 24.5 in 2000 and 16.5 in 2023, closed mostly by fewer child and infectious deaths and, from the mid-2000s, HIV treatment in Africa. The dips are China's famine (upper-middle, 1959 to 1961), Rwanda's genocide (low-income, 1994) and COVID-19 (2020 to 2021). The UN and IHME both expect gains to slow; they disagree most about the poorest countries, where IHME expects much faster catch-up.","field":"medicine","milestones":["life-expectancy-world-75","life-expectancy-world-80","life-expectancy-low-income-70","life-expectancy-lower-middle-75"]},{"id":"lithium-ion-battery-price","name":"Price of lithium-ion battery cells (cells only, not packs)","short":"Li-ion cell price","unit":"USD per kWh (constant 2024 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1991,9210.2],[1992,7388.1],[1993,5881.8],[1994,6714.4],[1995,6301.9],[1996,5307.8],[1997,4545.3],[1998,3656.9],[1999,2769.9],[2000,2690.6],[2001,1878],[2002,1345.5],[2003,1040.4],[2004,930.9],[2005,802.5],[2006,687.3],[2007,655.8],[2008,687.7],[2009,612.6],[2010,550.7],[2011,524.6],[2012,539.7],[2013,490.9],[2014,434.3],[2015,331.9],[2016,259],[2017,187],[2018,157],[2019,132],[2020,123],[2021,119],[2022,132],[2023,111],[2024,78],[2025,74]],"trend":{"slope":-0.061579548205812205,"intercept":126.53045542139793,"r2":0.9798807259819392,"sd":0.09177685717663885,"years":4.8884735993494735,"linear":false,"from":1991,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Price of lithium-ion battery cells (Rupert Way 2026, based on Ziegler and Trancik 2021, BloombergNEF and Avicenne Energy)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/price-of-lithium-ion-battery-cells"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (as published by Our World in Data)","note":"The price of CELLS only, not packs (see battery-pack-price for finished packs; BNEF's 2025 pack average was $108/kWh, of which $74 was cells). Representative cell price across major chemistries, constant 2024 US$ per kWh. 1991 to 2015 follow Ziegler and Trancik (2021, Energy Environ. Sci. 14, 1635); later years blend BloombergNEF and Avicenne survey data. 1991 to 2024 are rounded to 1 decimal from the OWID CSV (downloaded 2026-10-27, unchanged on 2026-10-28). 2025 is the cell share in BNEF's 2025 survey chart (real 2025 US$; that chart also puts 2024 cells at $78, so the two dollar bases agree closely): https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-fall-to-108-per-kilowatt-hour-despite-rising-metal-prices-bloombergnef/","field":"energy","milestones":[]},{"id":"max-age-at-death","name":"Oldest verified age at death each year","short":"Oldest age at death","unit":"years","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[1980,113.66],[1981,114.87],[1982,113.22],[1983,113.42],[1984,112.05],[1985,113.13],[1986,115.22],[1987,114.57],[1988,114.25],[1989,114.7],[1990,116.1],[1991,113.94],[1992,117.18],[1993,115.62],[1994,115.53],[1995,116.48],[1996,114.96],[1997,122.45],[1998,117.63],[1999,119.26],[2000,115.96],[2001,115.12],[2002,115.07],[2003,114.52],[2004,114.74],[2005,115.17],[2006,116.95],[2007,115.43],[2008,115.6],[2009,115.43],[2010,114.98],[2011,115.03],[2012,116.27],[2013,116.15],[2014,114.32],[2015,117.07],[2016,116.85],[2017,117.52],[2018,117.71],[2019,116.25],[2020,115.13],[2021,116.96],[2022,119.3],[2023,118.93],[2024,117.46],[2025,116.89]],"trend":null,"scenarios":[{"id":"dong-plateau","name":"Dong et al. plateau","kind":"trend","points":[[2025,115],[2100,115]],"low":[],"high":[],"note":"The limit hypothesis: the maximum age at death fluctuates around an average of about 115 with no upward trend, and 125 is close to an absolute limit (Dong, Milholland and Vijg 2016, from International Database on Longevity data for France, Japan, the UK and the US, 1968 to 2006).","sources":[{"title":"Dong, Milholland and Vijg, Evidence for a limit to human lifespan, Nature 538:257 (2016)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19793"},{"title":"ScienceDaily: Maximum human lifespan has already been reached (Albert Einstein College of Medicine, 2016)","url":"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161005132823.htm"}]},{"id":"metaculus-record-2050","name":"Metaculus, record by 2050","kind":"market","points":[[2025,122.45],[2050,125.8]],"low":[[2025,122.45],[2050,122.9]],"high":[[2025,122.45],[2050,129.9]],"note":"The Metaculus community forecast for the longest verified human lifespan on record on 1 January 2050: a median of about 125.8 with an interquartile range (50 percent band) of about 122.9 to 129.9, from about 150 forecasters. This is the record by then, the highest the annual series would reach once, not its level each year, so the line runs from today's record (Calment's 122.45) and the years it gives for milestones are rough. Metaculus blocks automated reading, so these figures come from search-engine snapshots of the page (another snapshot showed a median of 125 and a range of 123 to 129), not the live value.","sources":[{"title":"Metaculus: longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1, 2050","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628"}]},{"id":"pearce-raftery-2100","name":"Pearce and Raftery, record by 2100","kind":"projection","points":[[2025,122.45],[2100,127.7]],"low":[[2025,122.45],[2100,125.8]],"high":[[2025,122.45],[2100,130.6]],"note":"A Bayesian forecast combining the exponential (constant-risk) survival of supercentenarians with UN population projections of how many people will reach 110. The chance that someone dies at or above a given age between 2020 and 2100 is 99.9 percent for 124, 89 percent for 126, 44 percent for 128, 13 percent for 130 and 3 percent for 132. The point is the median of that distribution and the band its 10th to 90th percentiles, interpolated by me from those figures. Like the Metaculus line, it is the highest age reached once in the period, not the annual level, drawn from today's record of 122.45.","sources":[{"title":"Pearce and Raftery, Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections, Demographic Research 44:1271 (2021)","url":"https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.52"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Wikipedia, List of the verified oldest people (cases validated by the Gerontology Research Group, LongeviQuest and others), and GRG tables of validated supercentenarian deaths by year","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people"},"license":"Facts compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) and the Gerontology Research Group's public tables","note":"The highest validated age at death in each year (the \"maximum reported age at death\" of Dong, Milholland and Vijg), computed from birth and death dates on 2026-10-28. From 1990 the value comes from Wikipedia's lists of the 100 oldest verified women and men, which include every woman who died at 114.74 or older; for 1980 to 1989, 1991, 2003 and 2014, when no one that old died, it comes from GRG's yearly tables of validated deaths (www.grg-supercentenarians.org/validated-supercentenarian-deaths-in-YYYY/). Before about 1990 validation covered mainly the United States, so the lower 1980s values partly reflect fewer checked cases elsewhere. Dong et al. (Nature 538:257, 2016) found the maximum age at death rose from the 1970s to the early 1990s and then plateaued around 1995, and put the average maximum at about 115 and the chance of anyone reaching 125 in a given year at under 1 in 10,000. Many replies disputed this: Barbi et al. (Science 2018) found that the risk of death stops rising after 105 in Italy, which implies no fixed limit. In this series the annual maximum averaged 113.9 in the 1980s, 115.4 over 2000 to 2014 and 117.3 over 2015 to 2025, so it has not stayed flat, but the year to year scatter is large and no straight-line trend fits well. The oldest living person in October 2026, Ethel Caterham of the UK, is 117.2.","field":"medicine","milestones":["lifespan-123","lifespan-125"]},{"id":"osworld-score","name":"Best published success rate on OSWorld (AI agents using a real computer)","short":"OSWorld","unit":"percent of tasks","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2024.276,12.24],[2024.811,24.5],[2025.06,38.1],[2025.29,42.5],[2025.512,45.2],[2025.57,53.1],[2025.589,60.76],[2025.756,69.9],[2025.942,72.58],[2026.151,74.48],[2026.173,75],[2026.263,79.6],[2026.299,82.56],[2026.384,83.64],[2026.436,85],[2026.562,90.19]],"trend":{"slope":35.564788161488686,"intercept":-71983.69973028095,"r2":0.9740191649109163,"sd":3.905660996725227,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2024.276,"to":2026.562},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"OSWorld and OSWorld-Verified leaderboards (osworld_verified_results.xlsx, self_reported_results.xlsx), with lab reports","url":"http://osworld-v1.xlang.ai/"},"license":"Scores are reported facts; OSWorld itself is Apache-2.0","note":"OSWorld (Xie et al., NeurIPS 2024) is 369 tasks done on a real Ubuntu desktop through the screen, mouse and keyboard: editing documents and spreadsheets, using a browser, running programs. People completed 72.36 percent of tasks. Values are the best score published by each date: the original benchmark to July 2025, then OSWorld-Verified, a cleaned-up version run by the benchmark's authors, mixing whole agent systems (some using several models or best-of-10 attempts) with lab-reported single models. The two versions are not exactly comparable. The first to pass the human rate was a best-of-10 agent system (December 2025); among single models, Anthropic reported 72.7 for Claude Opus 4.6 (February 2026), and in official runs Claude Sonnet 4.6 came just short (72.11, March 2026) and Claude Fable 5 reached 85.96 (August 2026). The AI Digest 2025 survey's median for the end of 2025 was 60 percent; the result was 66 (original) to 72.6 (Verified), so forecasters were too low. In mid-2026 labs moved to the harder OSWorld 2.0, whose scores are not comparable (Epoch AI's strict pass rate tops out at 31.4). The benchmark saturates, so the straight-line trend is a poor guide near 100 percent.","field":"computing","milestones":["osworld-human-level"]},{"id":"price-of-light","name":"Labor price of light","short":"Price of light","unit":"hours of work per 1,000 lumen-hours","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[-100000,58],[-40000,50],[-1750,41],[1800,5.37],[1845,4.9],[1855,2.97],[1875,0.326],[1895,0.083],[1920,0.012],[1940,0.0055],[1990,0.000605],[1992,0.000119]],"trend":{"slope":-0.025679973682908634,"intercept":47.604197604556525,"r2":0.9508514729066297,"sd":0.4083777514512055,"years":11.722363869256315,"linear":false,"from":1800,"to":1992},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Nordhaus (1996), \"Do Real-Output and Real-Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Lighting Suggests Not\", in Bresnahan and Gordon (eds.), The Economics of New Goods (NBER, University of Chicago Press), Table 1.6; series as published by Our World in Data","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/hours-of-work-per-1000-lumen-hours"},"license":"Our World in Data's processing is CC BY 4.0. The underlying figures are from Nordhaus's NBER chapter (copyright University of Chicago Press); they are reused here as cited facts.","note":"Labor hours an average worker needed to earn the price of 1,000 lumen-hours (about one 60-watt incandescent bulb burning for an hour) with the best common technology of each date. US wage data from 1800 on; earlier points are rough reconstructions. The lamp labels are inferred from Nordhaus's text and may not match every row exactly.","field":"energy","milestones":[]},{"id":"remote-labor-index","name":"Share of real paid freelance projects AI completes at professional quality (Remote Labor Index)","short":"Remote Labor Index","unit":"percent of projects","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2025.827,2.5],[2025.896,3.75],[2026.096,4.17],[2026.307,6.25],[2026.403,8.33],[2026.436,15.83],[2026.666,17.92],[2026.671,20.83],[2026.723,21.25]],"trend":{"slope":21.35042084420662,"intercept":-43251.92541070191,"r2":0.862727634532552,"sd":3.0478139681260554,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2025.827,"to":2026.723},"scenarios":[{"id":"manifold","name":"Manifold markets","kind":"market","points":[[2026.723,21.25],[2027,40],[2027.55,80]],"low":[[2027,24]],"high":[[2027,65]],"note":"Two Manifold markets read on 28 October 2026. \"Best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026\" (32 traders, matching the AI Digest survey question) puts 33 percent on 30 to 40 and 23 percent on 40 to 50, a median near 40 with an 80 percent range of about 24 to 65 (interpolated within its bins). \"In what year will the automation rate reach 80%?\" (12 traders) puts 66 percent on 2027 and 13 percent on 2026 or earlier, a median around mid-2027. Both markets are thin, and the end-of-2026 one needs a jump from 21 percent within two months.","sources":[{"title":"Manifold, What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-remote-labor"},{"title":"Manifold, In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reach 80%?","url":"https://manifold.markets/CopiumSupplier/in-what-year-will-remote-labor-inde"}]}],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Scale AI and Center for AI Safety, Remote Labor Index leaderboard","url":"https://labs.scale.com/leaderboard/rli"},"license":"Scores are reported facts; no license stated","note":"The Remote Labor Index (Scale AI and the Center for AI Safety, October 2025) is 240 real projects that freelancers were paid to do, across 23 fields such as software, design, architecture and data analysis, each taking a professional a median of about 11.5 hours for a median fee of $200 ($143,991 in all). The automation rate is the share of projects where the AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human's, that is, one a reasonable client would accept. Values are the leaderboard scores (read 2026-10-28) dated by each model's release; Fable 5 was scored on 218 of the 240 projects. The AI Digest 2026 survey's median for the end of 2026 was 18 percent, passed in September. Unlike most benchmarks this one tracks whole jobs, so it is a closer guide to economic impact, but it saturates at 100 and has been measured for only a year, so its trend is a rough guide.","field":"computing","milestones":["remote-labor-index-50"]},{"id":"sequencing-cost-per-genome","name":"Cost to sequence a human genome","short":"Genome cost","unit":"USD","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2001.75,95263071.92],[2002.25,70175437.42],[2002.75,61448421.5],[2003.25,53751684.08],[2003.833,40157554.23],[2004.083,28780376.21],[2004.333,20442576.14],[2004.583,19934345.74],[2004.833,18519312.16],[2005.083,17534969.56],[2005.333,16159699.44],[2005.583,16180224.1],[2005.833,13801124.19],[2006.083,12585658.9],[2006.333,11732534.52],[2006.583,11455315.22],[2006.833,10474556.36],[2007.083,9408738.91],[2007.333,9047002.97],[2007.583,8927342.14],[2007.833,7147571.39],[2008.083,3063819.99],[2008.333,1352982.23],[2008.583,752079.9],[2008.833,342502.06],[2009.083,232735.44],[2009.333,154713.6],[2009.583,108065.14],[2009.833,70333.33],[2010.083,46774.27],[2010.333,31512.04],[2010.583,31124.96],[2010.833,29091.73],[2011.083,20962.78],[2011.333,16712.01],[2011.583,10496.93],[2011.833,7743.44],[2012.083,7666.22],[2012.333,5901.29],[2012.583,5984.72],[2012.833,6618.35],[2013.083,5671.35],[2013.333,5550.26],[2013.583,5550.26],[2013.833,5096.08],[2014.083,4008.11],[2014.333,4920.5],[2014.583,4904.85],[2014.833,5730.89],[2015.083,3969.84],[2015.333,4210.79],[2015.583,1363.24],[2015.833,1245.31],[2016.417,1175.74],[2016.667,1507.77],[2016.917,1355.79],[2017.167,1015.38],[2017.417,1333.4],[2017.667,1133.96],[2017.917,1844.08],[2018.167,1232.28],[2018.417,1463.13],[2018.667,1467.28],[2018.917,1391.68],[2019.167,993.14],[2019.333,606.32],[2019.583,942.15],[2019.917,695.37],[2020.167,644.62],[2020.417,701.56],[2020.667,688.57],[2020.917,511.97],[2021.167,850.84],[2021.417,454.05],[2021.667,562.18],[2021.917,552.2],[2022.167,524.62],[2022.417,524.62]],"trend":{"slope":-0.07545928525019724,"intercept":155.32352227019976,"r2":0.7014563379424561,"sd":0.10167094632714113,"years":3.9893035650399877,"linear":false,"from":2015.583,"to":2022.417},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"NHGRI DNA Sequencing Costs Data (Sequencing_Cost_Data_Table_May2022.xls)","url":"https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data"},"license":"public domain","note":"NHGRI Genome Sequencing Program production costs, all 78 data points as published (Sept 2001 to May 2022; page last updated May 16, 2023). Years are fractional: each point is dated to the end of its month (for example 2001.75 is 2001-09-30). Values are in nominal US dollars, rounded to the cent. A 'genome' is 3,000 Mb at the coverage of the era's dominant platform (about 6x Sanger before 2008, about 30x short reads after), and costs include labor, reagents, instrument depreciation, informatics and overhead, but not assembly or analysis. The cliff from late 2007 to 2009 is the switch from capillary Sanger to second-generation sequencers. The May 2022 point repeats the February 2022 value in the source. NHGRI has not published newer data (checked 2026-10-28). Vendor list prices for reagents are lower than these all-in production costs: about $200 a genome for Illumina's NovaSeq X (2022) and about $80 claimed by Ultima for its Solaris chemistry (2025). The trend is fitted from mid-2015 on, when cost halving slowed to about every five years.","field":"biology","milestones":["thousand-dollar-genome","ten-dollar-genome","genome-100-dollars"]},{"id":"sequencing-cost-per-megabase","name":"Cost per megabase of DNA sequence","short":"Cost per megabase","unit":"USD","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2001.75,5292.39],[2002.25,3898.64],[2002.75,3413.8],[2003.25,2986.2],[2003.833,2230.98],[2004.083,1598.91],[2004.333,1135.7],[2004.583,1107.46],[2004.833,1028.85],[2005.083,974.165],[2005.333,897.761],[2005.583,898.901],[2005.833,766.729],[2006.083,699.203],[2006.333,651.807],[2006.583,636.406],[2006.833,581.92],[2007.083,522.708],[2007.333,502.611],[2007.583,495.963],[2007.833,397.087],[2008.083,102.127],[2008.333,15.0331],[2008.583,8.35644],[2008.833,3.80558],[2009.083,2.58595],[2009.333,1.71904],[2009.583,1.20072],[2009.833,0.781481],[2010.083,0.519714],[2010.333,0.350134],[2010.583,0.345833],[2010.833,0.323241],[2011.083,0.23292],[2011.333,0.185689],[2011.583,0.116633],[2011.833,0.0860382],[2012.083,0.0851802],[2012.333,0.0655699],[2012.583,0.0664969],[2012.833,0.0735372],[2013.083,0.063015],[2013.333,0.0636412],[2013.583,0.0616696],[2013.833,0.0566231],[2014.083,0.0445345],[2014.333,0.0546722],[2014.583,0.0544983],[2014.833,0.0636766],[2015.083,0.0441093],[2015.333,0.0467865],[2015.583,0.0151471],[2015.833,0.0138368],[2016.417,0.0130638],[2016.667,0.016753],[2016.917,0.0150643],[2017.167,0.011282],[2017.417,0.0148156],[2017.667,0.0125995],[2017.917,0.0204897],[2018.167,0.0136919],[2018.417,0.016257],[2018.667,0.0163031],[2018.917,0.0154631],[2019.167,0.0110348],[2019.333,0.00673685],[2019.583,0.0104683],[2019.917,0.00772638],[2020.167,0.0071624],[2020.417,0.00779513],[2020.667,0.00765073],[2020.917,0.00568854],[2021.167,0.00945379],[2021.417,0.00504496],[2021.667,0.00624639],[2021.917,0.00613552],[2022.167,0.00582916],[2022.417,0.00582916]],"trend":{"slope":-0.3329489271449634,"intercept":669.9784241011365,"r2":0.873746743635271,"sd":0.745546449861019,"years":0.9041326495487252,"linear":false,"from":2001.75,"to":2022.417},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"NHGRI DNA Sequencing Costs Data (Sequencing_Cost_Data_Table_May2022.xls)","url":"https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data"},"license":"public domain","note":"NHGRI Genome Sequencing Program production costs, all 78 data points as published (Sept 2001 to May 2022; page last updated May 16, 2023). Years are fractional: each point is dated to the end of its month (for example 2001.75 is 2001-09-30). Values are nominal US dollars per million bases of raw sequence, rounded to six significant figures. Sanger-era data counts Phred Q20 bases; second-generation data uses each platform's own quality threshold. Moore's law (halving every two years) would have taken $5,292 to about $4 by mid-2022; the actual figure is about $0.006, roughly 700 times lower.","field":"biology","milestones":[]},{"id":"solar-lcoe","name":"Levelized cost of electricity from new solar PV plants, world","short":"Solar power cost","unit":"USD per kWh (constant 2025 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2010,0.4077],[2011,0.3438],[2012,0.2598],[2013,0.2026],[2014,0.1808],[2015,0.1337],[2016,0.1174],[2017,0.09356],[2018,0.07915],[2019,0.0685],[2020,0.06078],[2021,0.05435],[2022,0.05045],[2023,0.04261],[2024,0.043],[2025,0.04354]],"trend":{"slope":-0.06841102421030133,"intercept":137.02860663396604,"r2":0.9603453896195002,"sd":0.06850695254518849,"years":4.400314118066546,"linear":false,"from":2010,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Levelized cost of energy by technology (IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, and earlier editions)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID); IRENA data may be reused with attribution","note":"Levelized cost of electricity: lifetime cost of building, financing and running a plant divided by its lifetime output, without subsidies, as estimated by IRENA in constant 2025 US$ (4 significant figures, OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28). Global capacity-weighted average for utility-scale solar PV plants commissioned each year. The fall slowed after 2020: LCOE was flat at about 0.043 from 2023 to 2025.","field":"energy","milestones":["solar-power-5-cents-kwh"]},{"id":"solar-pv-cumulative-capacity","name":"Cumulative installed solar capacity, world","short":"Solar capacity","unit":"GW","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[2000,1.22],[2001,1.33],[2002,1.63],[2003,2.34],[2004,3.43],[2005,4.92],[2006,6.49],[2007,8.96],[2008,15.23],[2009,23.54],[2010,41.49],[2011,72.66],[2012,102.82],[2013,139.69],[2014,178.85],[2015,226.6],[2016,298.51],[2017,392.34],[2018,487.85],[2019,590.12],[2020,721.22],[2021,865.92],[2022,1057.87],[2023,1423.99],[2024,1883.18],[2025,2396.71]],"trend":{"slope":0.14028156673617692,"intercept":-280.4805759785181,"r2":0.9818393833269221,"sd":0.14893199111861805,"years":2.145898443165514,"linear":false,"from":2000,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Installed solar energy capacity (IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics 2026)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Total solar capacity, on- and off-grid, as reported by IRENA. It includes concentrated solar power, which is under 1 percent of the total (roughly 7 GW), so it can stand in for cumulative PV. Values rounded to 2 decimals from the OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-27. Series starts in 2000; IRENA's figures are AC or DC depending on the country.","field":"energy","milestones":["solar-1-terawatt"]},{"id":"solar-pv-module-price","name":"Solar photovoltaic module price","short":"Solar module price","unit":"USD per watt (constant 2025 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1975,132.3757],[1976,99.5976],[1977,72.6611],[1978,51.4082],[1979,43.1951],[1980,36.605],[1981,29.2664],[1982,26.2952],[1983,21.2281],[1984,19.725],[1985,17.2204],[1986,14.2447],[1987,12.1104],[1988,11.3116],[1989,11.6901],[1990,12.0911],[1991,11.2008],[1992,10.4351],[1993,9.7587],[1994,9.2315],[1995,8.5355],[1996,7.9798],[1997,7.952],[1998,7.1656],[1999,6.6193],[2000,6.4959],[2001,6.2844],[2002,5.7473],[2003,5.4638],[2004,4.6955],[2005,4.7457],[2006,5.1727],[2007,5.2111],[2008,4.7492],[2009,3.1743],[2010,2.5118],[2011,2.0609],[2012,1.1107],[2013,0.8566],[2014,0.7905],[2015,0.7357],[2016,0.6803],[2017,0.5714],[2018,0.5091],[2019,0.4669],[2020,0.3249],[2021,0.3446],[2022,0.3669],[2023,0.2735],[2024,0.1331],[2025,0.1202]],"trend":{"slope":-0.07370319043396353,"intercept":148.42602043024525,"r2":0.9324378089834664,"sd":0.09776955837356704,"years":4.084355017625697,"linear":false,"from":2010,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":{"exponent":-0.5046498258968448,"learningRate":0.295168564958432,"r2":0.942675866563305,"points":26},"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Solar photovoltaic module price (IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 and in 2025; Nemet 2009; Farmer and Lafond 2016)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Module price only, excluding installation and balance of system. Nemet (2009) for 1975 to 2003, Farmer and Lafond (2016) for 2004 to 2009, IRENA's global module price index (pvXchange benchmark for modules sold in Europe) for 2010 to 2019, and IRENA's \"mainstream\" crystalline silicon module series from 2020 (OWID joins the two without rescaling; they differ by under 20 percent in 2020 to 2023). Deflated to 2025 US$ by OWID with the World Bank US GDP deflator. Values rounded to 4 decimals from the OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28 (OWID revised the series on 2026-10-23, which lowered 2024 from 0.27 to 0.13). Paired with solar-pv-cumulative-capacity for a Wright's law fit (price drop per doubling of cumulative capacity).","field":"energy","milestones":["solar-module-1-dollar-watt","solar-module-20-cents-watt","solar-module-10-cents-watt"]},{"id":"swe-bench-verified","name":"Best published score on SWE-bench Verified (real GitHub issues resolved)","short":"SWE-bench Verified","unit":"percent resolved","better":"higher","log":false,"points":[[2023.773,4.4],[2024.251,22.4],[2024.445,32.6],[2024.645,45.2],[2024.825,53],[2024.948,58.2],[2024.967,71.7],[2025.386,73.2],[2025.589,76.8],[2025.74,78.8],[2025.896,80.9],[2026.263,93.9],[2026.436,95.5],[2026.559,97]],"trend":{"slope":32.206700223514645,"intercept":-65164.01834868375,"r2":0.9316684234849879,"sd":7.752066199058849,"years":null,"linear":true,"from":2023.773,"to":2026.559},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"SWE-bench leaderboards (swebench.com, data/leaderboards.json), with lab reports and Vals.ai","url":"https://www.swebench.com/"},"license":"Scores are reported facts; the swebench.com leaderboard states no license (SWE-bench code is MIT)","note":"SWE-bench Verified is 500 real issues from 12 Python repositories on GitHub, each checked by human annotators to be solvable, with the fix graded by the project's own tests. Points are the best score published by each date: swebench.com submissions (mostly self-submitted agents) to February 2026, then lab-reported scores, then Vals.ai's independent run of Claude Opus 5 (https://www.vals.ai/benchmarks/swebench), which has archived the benchmark as saturated. Epoch AI's own runs with its own scaffold are lower (83.5 for Claude Opus 4.7, April 2026). OpenAI stopped reporting the benchmark in February 2026. The AI Digest 2025 forecasting survey's median for the end of 2025 was 88 percent; the best pass@1 score was 80.9, so forecasters were too high. Epoch AI wrote in September 2025 that SWE-bench was \"on track to be solved in 2026\", and it was. A benchmark like this follows an S-curve, so the straight-line trend is a poor guide near 100 percent, and the last few percent may be flawed or ambiguous tasks rather than skill.","field":"computing","milestones":["swe-bench-verified-50","swe-bench-verified-95"]},{"id":"transistors-per-chip","name":"Transistors in the largest microprocessor","short":"Transistors per chip","unit":"transistors","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[1971,2308],[1972,3555],[1974,6098],[1979,29164],[1982,135773],[1985,273842],[1989,1207901],[1992,3105900],[1995,9646616],[1998,15261378],[1999,21673922],[2000,37180264],[2001,42550656],[2002,220673400],[2004,273842000],[2005,305052770],[2006,582941600],[2007,805842200],[2009,2308241400],[2011,2600000000],[2013,5000000000],[2014,5700000000],[2016,8000000000],[2017,19200000000],[2018,21100000000],[2019,39500000000],[2021,58200000000],[2022,114000000000],[2023,146000000000],[2026,227000000000]],"trend":{"slope":0.1493594243016503,"intercept":-291.0129591267167,"r2":0.9963798922124155,"sd":0.14636502481190716,"years":2.015473727697376,"linear":false,"from":1971,"to":2026},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Moore's law: the number of transistors per microprocessor (from Rupp, Microprocessor Trend Data, 2022)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID); later points CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikipedia)","note":"1971 to 2021 are the OWID series (downloaded 2026-10-27), rounded to whole transistors, keeping only years where the record changed; OWID's source (Rupp) ends in 2021. 2022, 2023 and 2026 are the largest counts in the microprocessor table of Wikipedia's \"Transistor count\" article (read 2026-10-28; CC BY-SA 4.0). Since about 2019 the record holders are multi-chip packages (AMD's Epyc Rome in 2019 already was), so the series measures transistors per processor package, not per die. GPUs, which are not in this series, are larger still (Nvidia's two-die B200, 2024, about 208 billion).","field":"electronics","milestones":[]},{"id":"two-qubit-gate-error","name":"Best two-qubit quantum gate error rate","short":"Qubit gate error","unit":"error per gate (1 minus fidelity)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[2003,0.03],[2008,0.007],[2016,0.0008],[2021,0.0006],[2024,0.0003],[2025,0.000084]],"trend":{"slope":-0.10179047814493765,"intercept":202.29404586536697,"r2":0.9577628408811746,"sd":0.21451527228442113,"years":2.9573492643914094,"linear":false,"from":2003,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Sevilla and Riedel, Forecasting timelines of quantum computing (arXiv:2009.05045, dataset CC BY 4.0), plus the papers named on each point","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05045"},"license":"Dataset CC BY 4.0; later points are published results reused as cited facts","note":"The lowest two-qubit entangling gate error reported each time the record fell, on any platform; so far every record has been set with trapped ions. Papers measure it differently (Bell-state fidelity, randomized benchmarking, IonQ's leakage-aware benchmarking), so points are only roughly comparable, and a best pair in a lab is better than a whole machine's average (Quantinuum's commercial H1-1 averaged 8.6e-4 in 2024; superconducting fluxonium reached 7.8e-4 in 2023, Ding et al., PRX 13, 031035; neutral atoms 5e-3 in 2023, Evered et al., Nature 622, 268). The 2003 point is from Sevilla and Riedel's spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pwb4gf0FxlxgfVhtXTaqEGS9b7FwsstsJ0v7Zb1naQ0/). Error correction needs physical errors well below the surface-code threshold of about 1e-2, across many more qubits than any of these records used.","field":"computing","milestones":["quantum-gate-three-nines","quantum-gate-four-nines"]},{"id":"wheat-yield","name":"Wheat yield in England and the United Kingdom","short":"UK wheat yield","unit":"tonnes per hectare","better":"higher","log":true,"points":[[1275,0.56],[1305,0.52],[1355,0.43],[1405,0.43],[1455,0.34],[1555,0.67],[1605,0.74],[1655,0.91],[1705,0.95],[1755,1.05],[1805,1.26],[1855,1.76],[1865,1.98],[1887,2.06],[1912,2.17],[1932,2.23],[1944,2.56],[1965,4.07],[1970,4.19],[1975,4.33],[1980,5.88],[1985,6.33],[1990,6.97],[1995,7.7],[2000,8.01],[2001,7.08],[2002,8],[2003,7.78],[2004,7.78],[2005,7.96],[2006,8.04],[2007,7.22],[2008,8.28],[2009,7.93],[2010,7.67],[2011,7.75],[2012,6.66],[2013,7.38],[2014,8.58],[2015,8.98],[2016,7.89],[2017,8.28],[2018,7.75],[2019,8.93],[2020,6.96],[2021,7.81],[2022,8.59],[2023,8.13],[2024,7.28]],"trend":{"slope":0.004367139392213928,"intercept":-7.903944368961695,"r2":0.9192414620247275,"sd":0.06844335354829327,"years":68.93070466234273,"linear":false,"from":1805,"to":2024},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Wheat yields (FAO 2025; Broadberry et al. 2015; Brassley 2000; Bayliss-Smith and Wanmali 1984)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wheat-yields"},"license":"CC BY 4.0","note":"Harvested wheat per hectare in England (medieval and early modern points, Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth 1270-1870) and the United Kingdom (from 1887; FAO from 1961). Early points are averages over decades. From 1961 to 1999 only every fifth year is kept; every year from 2000. OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28. Yields roughly doubled between 1300 and 1800, nearly tripled by 1961, and then doubled again by the late 1990s with semi-dwarf varieties, fertilizer and fungicides; the national average has been flat at 7 to 9 tonnes since the late 1990s, with weather-driven dips (2001, 2012, 2020, 2024).","field":"agriculture","milestones":[]},{"id":"wind-lcoe","name":"Levelized cost of electricity from new onshore wind farms, world","short":"Wind power cost","unit":"USD per kWh (constant 2025 US$)","better":"lower","log":true,"points":[[1984,0.369],[1985,0.3426],[1986,0.3041],[1987,0.295],[1988,0.2433],[1989,0.225],[1990,0.2392],[1991,0.2295],[1992,0.2299],[1993,0.2419],[1994,0.2278],[1995,0.2382],[1996,0.2127],[1997,0.1861],[1998,0.1745],[1999,0.1718],[2000,0.1839],[2001,0.1614],[2002,0.1492],[2003,0.1307],[2004,0.1329],[2005,0.1245],[2006,0.1281],[2007,0.1166],[2008,0.1228],[2009,0.1204],[2010,0.1136],[2011,0.1077],[2012,0.09884],[2013,0.09905],[2014,0.08761],[2015,0.07601],[2016,0.06979],[2017,0.06479],[2018,0.05563],[2019,0.04926],[2020,0.04093],[2021,0.03608],[2022,0.03402],[2023,0.03314],[2024,0.03428],[2025,0.03295]],"trend":{"slope":-0.02424821234067225,"intercept":47.693185008044516,"r2":0.9486113060842786,"sd":0.07009701925954333,"years":12.414523241330027,"linear":false,"from":1984,"to":2025},"scenarios":[],"wright":null,"source":{"title":"Our World in Data, Levelized cost of energy by technology (IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, and earlier editions)","url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy"},"license":"CC BY 4.0 (OWID); IRENA data may be reused with attribution","note":"Levelized cost of electricity: lifetime cost of building, financing and running a plant divided by its lifetime output, without subsidies, as estimated by IRENA in constant 2025 US$ (4 significant figures, OWID CSV downloaded 2026-10-28). Global capacity-weighted average for onshore wind farms commissioned each year; IRENA's series starts in 1984. The fall has flattened since about 2021.","field":"energy","milestones":["wind-power-5-cents-kwh"]}],"models":{"effort":{"n":178,"beta":[1.430553076525716,0.39573600581865254,0.13571536814476534,1.3195883664746484],"sd":1.2438166688594332,"r2":0.16656825948266107,"fold":2.4873448786366157,"kinds":[{"name":"discovery","kinds":["discovery"],"n":45,"shift":0},{"name":"technique or device","kinds":["technique","device","milestone"],"n":119,"shift":0.13571536814476534},{"name":"infrastructure or institution","kinds":["infrastructure","institution"],"n":14,"shift":1.3195883664746484}],"from":1500},"cost":{"n":25,"slope":1.7106286435890385,"intercept":7.675450155886679,"sd":1.563187328724028,"r2":0.10912524439331259,"fold":51.36042911433781,"from":1900},"span":{"n":178,"exponent":0.17477248523651376,"intercept":0.2354143415450205,"r2":0.29562985360779004},"lag":{"eras":[{"from":-10000,"to":1500,"n":51,"q25":838.5538897217891,"q50":1973.1903217001225,"q75":4583.683463482239},{"from":1500,"to":1800,"n":37,"q25":49,"q50":170,"q75":817},{"from":1800,"to":1900,"n":67,"q25":20,"q50":35,"q75":129},{"from":1900,"to":1950,"n":52,"q25":15.75,"q50":37.75,"q75":72},{"from":1950,"to":2000,"n":152,"q25":7,"q50":13,"q75":34.25},{"from":2000,"to":2026.81,"n":140,"q25":3,"q50":11,"q75":33.5}],"basis":{"from":1950,"n":292,"q25":5,"q50":12,"q75":34.25}}}}